Proximity talks
The likelihood of renewed negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Authority were greatly enhanced Thursday when the Foreign Ministers of the Arab League meeting in Cairo announced that they supported the idea of "proximity talks" as proposed by the US Administration. The two parties will meet separately with the US represenatative George Mitchell, and he will shuttle between them so that an agreement to actually meet face to face can be reached.
The only condition the FMs put on the renewal was that they be held for a period of 4 months, while the US has no such time limitation, although Pres. Obama optimistically expects an agreement on all issues within two years. Israel has been ready to restart negotiations from the beginning of the Netanyahu government, but the PA has been refusing. At least this Arab League initiative, under the auspices of Pres. Mubarak of Egypt, gives Pres. Abbas of the PA the opportunity to climb down from the preconditions that he had set for some time, since the US-initiated request for a complete halt to Israeli building in the West Bank including Jerusalem. PM Netanyahu initiated a building freeze excepting Jerusalem and giving a time limit of 10 months, two of which have already gone by.
The talks will not start where the last ones between Abbas and Olmert left off, things have changed. The main issues to be addressed in any final status negotiations are: 1. Mutual recognition, Israel as a Jewish State (the Arabs won't) and Palestine as an Arab State (Israel will). 2. The borders between Israel and the putative Palestinian State; 3. The Arab demand of the "right of return" of refugees (that Israel rejects); 4. The division of Jerusalem (that Israel rejects); and 5. An end of conflict agreement including demilitarization (that the Arabs reject). Each of these items requires complex negotiations within themselves.
Regarding the borders, Israel will insist that several areas of the West Bank where there is dense Jewish settlement, specifically including Ma'ale Adumin (40,000 Jews), Ariel (30,000), and Gush Etzion (10,000) will be incorporated into Israel, and the PA will be compensated with the transfer of land and Arab population from within Israel. This of course must include the acceptance of transfer by the Jews and the Arabs who will be affected. It is well known that most Israeli Arabs would prefer to remain Israeli citizens (so much for Israel being an "apartheid State").
Israel will not and cannot take a million or more Arab so-called "refugees" many of whom are second generation born in other countries (and so are not considered refugees under international law). How this issue can be finessesed for the Arab side is unclear. Israel regards Jerusalem as its "eternal capital" and will not agree to a wholesale division of the city. However, a partial slicing off of some Arab neighborhoods might be an acceptable compromise.
The main stumbling block will be the Arab agreement to accept an "end of conflict" statement that would in effect end the Palestine-Israel conflict, that has lasted for more than 100 years. But, that is not expected to happen soon. Abbas is too weak and he can't speak for nearly half the Palestinians who live in Gaza under Hamas. Then of course there are other problems, such as how will any Jewish minority within Palestine be treated and how will access be guaranteed to Jewish holy sites. Israel expects reciprocity to the good example of its treatment of Arab citizens and holy sites, but previous experience does not augur well in this respect. Anyway it is a long road from the start of proximity talks to an end of conflict agreement.
The only condition the FMs put on the renewal was that they be held for a period of 4 months, while the US has no such time limitation, although Pres. Obama optimistically expects an agreement on all issues within two years. Israel has been ready to restart negotiations from the beginning of the Netanyahu government, but the PA has been refusing. At least this Arab League initiative, under the auspices of Pres. Mubarak of Egypt, gives Pres. Abbas of the PA the opportunity to climb down from the preconditions that he had set for some time, since the US-initiated request for a complete halt to Israeli building in the West Bank including Jerusalem. PM Netanyahu initiated a building freeze excepting Jerusalem and giving a time limit of 10 months, two of which have already gone by.
The talks will not start where the last ones between Abbas and Olmert left off, things have changed. The main issues to be addressed in any final status negotiations are: 1. Mutual recognition, Israel as a Jewish State (the Arabs won't) and Palestine as an Arab State (Israel will). 2. The borders between Israel and the putative Palestinian State; 3. The Arab demand of the "right of return" of refugees (that Israel rejects); 4. The division of Jerusalem (that Israel rejects); and 5. An end of conflict agreement including demilitarization (that the Arabs reject). Each of these items requires complex negotiations within themselves.
Regarding the borders, Israel will insist that several areas of the West Bank where there is dense Jewish settlement, specifically including Ma'ale Adumin (40,000 Jews), Ariel (30,000), and Gush Etzion (10,000) will be incorporated into Israel, and the PA will be compensated with the transfer of land and Arab population from within Israel. This of course must include the acceptance of transfer by the Jews and the Arabs who will be affected. It is well known that most Israeli Arabs would prefer to remain Israeli citizens (so much for Israel being an "apartheid State").
Israel will not and cannot take a million or more Arab so-called "refugees" many of whom are second generation born in other countries (and so are not considered refugees under international law). How this issue can be finessesed for the Arab side is unclear. Israel regards Jerusalem as its "eternal capital" and will not agree to a wholesale division of the city. However, a partial slicing off of some Arab neighborhoods might be an acceptable compromise.
The main stumbling block will be the Arab agreement to accept an "end of conflict" statement that would in effect end the Palestine-Israel conflict, that has lasted for more than 100 years. But, that is not expected to happen soon. Abbas is too weak and he can't speak for nearly half the Palestinians who live in Gaza under Hamas. Then of course there are other problems, such as how will any Jewish minority within Palestine be treated and how will access be guaranteed to Jewish holy sites. Israel expects reciprocity to the good example of its treatment of Arab citizens and holy sites, but previous experience does not augur well in this respect. Anyway it is a long road from the start of proximity talks to an end of conflict agreement.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:54 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home