Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Proximity talks?

In order to cover his arse (or ass as they say in the US), Pres Abbas of the PA has applied to the Arab League for permission to engage in "proximity talks" with Israel mediated by Sen. George Mitchell, special envoy of US Pres Obama. This is an unusual move for two reasons, first the Arab League is usually ignored by individual Arab countries because it has no power and little influence. Second, the Palestinians in latter times have been noted by their rejection of any control by other Arab countries who were defeated by Israel in previous wars and who they regarded as oppressors. So the main reason why Abbas is doing this now is because he is so weak that he feels he needs Arab support so that the Arab countries will not attack him for dealing with Israel.

Before the Arab League met, the Syrian Government spokesman predicted that the Arab League will reject Abbas's request. He did that because, of course, Syria belongs to the rejectionist front and is an ally of Shia Iran, Lebanese Hizbollah and Gaza Hamas. They all oppose any negotiations with Israel and in fact oppose any peace with Israel. But, at the same time the US under Pres. Obama has sent a new Ambassador to Syria in order to improve bilateral relations. Talk about mixed messages.

It is true that direct talks between Israel and the PA have not produced any breakthroughs in the past 16 years, while now the PA places a precondition of a freeze on building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. While PM Netanyahu has not agreed to a freeze in East Jerusalem, the matter of building there has been curiously quiet in the past few weeks since the Biden visit to Jerulalem and the embarrassment of the announcment of building in Ramat Shlomo. There have been reports that this quiet is due to an unannounced agreement between Netanyahu and Obama that Israel will not initiate new building in Arab areas of East Jeruslaem and refrain from further new building beyond the "green line" the former border between Israel and the West Bank for the time being. But, several Government agencies, including the PMO and the Foreign Ministry have denied that any such "silent" agreement exists.

In effect, everyone realizes that Obama has squeezed as much out of the Netanyahu Government as he is going to get. Indeed, as a result of the pressure, Netanyahu has reevaluated previous agreements, made by PM Sharon, to remove all "hill-top" outposts in the West Bank. Since that agreement has now been superseded, such outposts will no longer be removed except as required by Israeli law. So finally, after squeezing Israel, Obama has put pressure on Abbas and the PA to return to negotiations, and so we can expect proximity talks to start soon, and the Arab League will approve them.

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