Terror or war?
An Israeli policeman was killed and two others were wounded in a shooting on the West Bank near Hebron last week. His police car was shot at, but it was unclear if this was a drive-by shooting or a stationary shooter. The police are investigating. The father of three children from Beersheva, his family is mourning his loss. A young Palestinian was arrested at a checkpoint near Ramallah after he left a satchel containing 4 pipe bombs. He said he was told to take the satchel to a contact in Nablus, but he was afraid he would be caught in a search so he dropped the satchel. A rocket was launched from Gaza and hit Israel south of Sderot, there were no casualties. This is the constant background of terrorism that the Palestinians use to let us know that they are still there.
Israel is in the unenviable position of having 4 possible fronts in any future war, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran, and that's without considering the West Bank. Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon are proxies of Iran, supported, supplied and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). The IRG itself was specifically named in the recent UN SC resolution just passed adding sanctions against Iran in view of its nuclear program, since the IRG are responsible for all military activities in Iran. The decision by Iran to send a flotilla of two ships to Gaza in order to break the blockade seems to be a a maneuver that could be designed deliberatly to cause a war with Israel. If an incident happens as it did on the Mavi Marmara with the Turks, and in this case Iranians are killed by Israeli commandos, then Iran might use this as a causus belli, an excuse to start a war with Israel.
Meir Javedanfar, an expert on Iran writing in the Jerusalem Post, in an article entitled "The Turkey vs Iran flotilla race," http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=178991) proposes another interpretation, that the reason why Iran is sending a flotilla now is that it is jealous of Turkey. After all, Iran has put an enormous amount of funding into Gaza, but who comes along and scoops them - Turkey. Without putting in any money, Turkey is now the favorite in Gaza, with Turkish flags flying everywhere. This is an embarrassment to Iran, after all the brave talk by Ahmedinejad, it was Turkey that actually sent in fighters to break the Israeli blockade. So now Iran is sending its own flotilla to try to get some of its kudos back.
But, they have to be careful, often wars start from unexpected incidents and Iran is not yet ready to dominate the region because it has not yet developed its nuclear capability. So it is a race against time, will they get their atomic bomb before Israel or any other country strikes, or will they try a preemptive strike, using their proxies, Hamas, Hizbollah and Syria. Only time will tell.
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PS. There will be a break in my messages due to vacation.
Israel is in the unenviable position of having 4 possible fronts in any future war, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran, and that's without considering the West Bank. Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon are proxies of Iran, supported, supplied and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). The IRG itself was specifically named in the recent UN SC resolution just passed adding sanctions against Iran in view of its nuclear program, since the IRG are responsible for all military activities in Iran. The decision by Iran to send a flotilla of two ships to Gaza in order to break the blockade seems to be a a maneuver that could be designed deliberatly to cause a war with Israel. If an incident happens as it did on the Mavi Marmara with the Turks, and in this case Iranians are killed by Israeli commandos, then Iran might use this as a causus belli, an excuse to start a war with Israel.
Meir Javedanfar, an expert on Iran writing in the Jerusalem Post, in an article entitled "The Turkey vs Iran flotilla race," http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=178991) proposes another interpretation, that the reason why Iran is sending a flotilla now is that it is jealous of Turkey. After all, Iran has put an enormous amount of funding into Gaza, but who comes along and scoops them - Turkey. Without putting in any money, Turkey is now the favorite in Gaza, with Turkish flags flying everywhere. This is an embarrassment to Iran, after all the brave talk by Ahmedinejad, it was Turkey that actually sent in fighters to break the Israeli blockade. So now Iran is sending its own flotilla to try to get some of its kudos back.
But, they have to be careful, often wars start from unexpected incidents and Iran is not yet ready to dominate the region because it has not yet developed its nuclear capability. So it is a race against time, will they get their atomic bomb before Israel or any other country strikes, or will they try a preemptive strike, using their proxies, Hamas, Hizbollah and Syria. Only time will tell.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS. There will be a break in my messages due to vacation.
posted by Jack Cohen at 8:05 AM
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