Saudi air space

There have been reports in major newspapers, including The Times of London, that Saudi Arabia has approved in advance the fly-over of Israeli airplanes in their air space on their way to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Apart from the fact that the Saudis have formally denied this, this Report is most implausible. The Report includes the turning off of the Saudi air defence systems so that they would not be activated by the IDF planes and the setting aside of space on Saudi airfields for Israel jets to refuel if necessary. This report is so unbelievable that one must assume that it has been planted by pro-Iranian sources in order to discredit the Saudis. After all, why would the leader of the Sunni Muslim world suddenly decide to cooperate with their greatest enemy, the Jews. Remember that in the Gulf War of 2004 Israel was asked by the US to take the rockets being fired from Saddam's Iraq without military response, rather than risk the breakup of the allied coalition that included such unlikely countries as Syria and Saudi Arabia. The conventional view was that if IDF planes counter-attacked Iraq, as they were imminently prepared to do, that the US could not prevent the break-up of its coalition. So what could possibly have happened since then that would reverse such an ingrained policy.

The explanation would be that Iran is a far more powerful and immediate threat to the security and survival of the Saudi regime than Saddam ever was. Faced with the hegemonic aims of the Iranian regime, the Sunni Arabs are being challenged by their great rivals, the Shi'ite Muslims. It is as if the Protestants and the Catholics were about to restart a war that has been going on for hundreds of years, with each side regarding the other as heretical, and nearby there is a power that could significantly tip the balance. The fact is that the Sunni Arab regimes are weak and incompetent, and it was only because Saddam's Iraq was so corrupt and over-estimated (such as its lack of WMDs) that it fell so quickly. Also, the crucial question is does the old adage apply to the Middle East that has so often been quoted, i.e. "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." I am afraid not, as the case of the first Gulf War attests, and in many areas the US has had to avoid including Israel so as to avoid losing Arab support.

But, now with Pres. Obama, the situation has become even more delicate. US engagement with Iran, although so far unsuccessful, frightens the Sunni Arabs even more than Israel. At least Israel has itself to rely on, but what have the Arabs got if not the US. With US forces stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with Obama considered relatively passive by his enemies, hence giving them the opportunity to expand their plans, this Report does become more plausible. If it happened, if Israel found it necessary to strike Iranian targets, then this would indicate a real turnaround by the Arab world. It would be an acknowledgement that Iran is a far more dangerous threat to them than is Israel.