Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Lebanon

Pres. Ahmedinejad's provocative visit last week to Lebanon clarified the extent to which Iran now controls the fate of Lebanon. Although this visit was not given much coverage in the Israeli and Western press (at the same time the miners were being rescued in Chile) it nevertheless represents a significant move in the Middle East political game. Since Hizbollah is a fully funded proxy of Iran and since it now has two members in the Lebanese Cabinet and since nothing can take place in Lebanon without the approval of Hizbollah, in effect, Lebanon no longer exists as an independent state.

That is why Pres. Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated former President Rafik Hariri, has not been able to do anything about the resurgent control of Syria and Iran in Lebanon. Although he was elected by a majority of the Lebanese people who are from sects other than the Shia, namely Christians, Druse and Sunni Muslims, he has no freedom of action, although he demurred when asked by Ahmedinejad to join the alliance of Iran and Syria as an active member. He cannot even support the findings of the UN Commission set up to investigate the assassination of his father. Sheikh Nasrullah, Head of Hizbollah, and Ahmedinejad when he was in Lebanon, have made it plain that anyone who accepts the findings of the Commission is automatically a traitor to Lebanon. So if Saad Hariri accepts the findings that are expected to implicate Hizbollah operatives in a Syrian sponsored terrorist action, then that could lead to another civil war, or in effect a continuation of the previous civil war after a long hiatus.

The question is, does Hariri have the guts to take a stand against Hizbollah and try to rescue Labanon from Iranian hegemony, or will he succumb, break with the legacy of his murdered father, and accept the demise of a sovereign Lebanon? Of course, the results are of great importance to Israel and to the free Western world. But, noone seems to be directly involved in this struggle on the side of Hariri and Lebanon. France and the US occasionally make supportive statements, but don't really do anything. Now that the extent of Iranian control is known, and the indpendence of the Lebanese Army, with about 50% Shia, is under severe question, the US has decided not to continue to continue the rearming of the LA. However, this was as much an intiative of the Congress as it was of the Administration. While Pres. Obama is focussed on whether or not 238 houses are being built in Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem, Lebanon is being lost.

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