On the other hand
It is predicted that the Democrats under Pres Obama will suffer badly in the mid-term elections in a few days, and this will result in a net gain by the Republicans. Whether or not the Republicans will gain control of both Houses of Congress is unknown, but likely. On the one hand the weakening of Pres. Obama could be good for Israel, but on the other hand it could be bad.
Scenario 1: A weakened President Obama and the election of a Republican-controlled House and possibly Senate will prevent Obama from further pressuring Israel. He will be so distracted by domestic issues and trying to get re-elected that he will pay less attention to the Middle East and will stop pressuring Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. Israel will not renew the building freeze in the West Bank and the Palestinians will then be left with no alternative but to stop direct negotiations. In that event they might be tempted to try the route of a unilateral declaration of an independent Palestinian state, as formulated by PM Fayyad. This will give Israel the excuse that PM Netanyahu has been waiting for to seize those portions of the West Bank that are densely inhabited by Jews (Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion, Ariel). A minor war will then ensue over the borders of the Palestinian State, which Israel will win.
Scenario 2: Beware a weakened animal! Pres. Obama, partially blaming the Jews for his defeat, will lash out against Israel. He will decide that if he is going down he will at least try to bring about peace in the Middle East by pressuring Israel to accept Palestinian pre-conditions. However, because PM Netanyahu has no majority in his coalition government to reinstate a building freeze in the West Bank, Israel will not comply. Whereupon the Palestinians will unilaterally declare a state and Pres Obama will order the US representative not to use the US veto in the Security Council, which will then recognize the Palestinian State within the pre-1967 borders. Israel will then be presented with a fait accompli, if it unilaterally occupies those areas of dense Jewish settlement, this will lead to a direct clash with the Security Council and the possibility of international sanctions or worse against Israel.
Other scenarios can be thought up that might be a combination of these two, and others. But, either way, whatever happens to Pres. Obama and the Democrats, the Middle East will be destabilized and there could be a period of violence and uncertainty. This will be considered Pres. Obama's legacy.
Scenario 1: A weakened President Obama and the election of a Republican-controlled House and possibly Senate will prevent Obama from further pressuring Israel. He will be so distracted by domestic issues and trying to get re-elected that he will pay less attention to the Middle East and will stop pressuring Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. Israel will not renew the building freeze in the West Bank and the Palestinians will then be left with no alternative but to stop direct negotiations. In that event they might be tempted to try the route of a unilateral declaration of an independent Palestinian state, as formulated by PM Fayyad. This will give Israel the excuse that PM Netanyahu has been waiting for to seize those portions of the West Bank that are densely inhabited by Jews (Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion, Ariel). A minor war will then ensue over the borders of the Palestinian State, which Israel will win.
Scenario 2: Beware a weakened animal! Pres. Obama, partially blaming the Jews for his defeat, will lash out against Israel. He will decide that if he is going down he will at least try to bring about peace in the Middle East by pressuring Israel to accept Palestinian pre-conditions. However, because PM Netanyahu has no majority in his coalition government to reinstate a building freeze in the West Bank, Israel will not comply. Whereupon the Palestinians will unilaterally declare a state and Pres Obama will order the US representative not to use the US veto in the Security Council, which will then recognize the Palestinian State within the pre-1967 borders. Israel will then be presented with a fait accompli, if it unilaterally occupies those areas of dense Jewish settlement, this will lead to a direct clash with the Security Council and the possibility of international sanctions or worse against Israel.
Other scenarios can be thought up that might be a combination of these two, and others. But, either way, whatever happens to Pres. Obama and the Democrats, the Middle East will be destabilized and there could be a period of violence and uncertainty. This will be considered Pres. Obama's legacy.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:58 AM
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