Egypt in turmoil
Egypt is in turmoil, in a moment of revolutionary change with a popular uprising similar to that which took place in Tunisia last month. But, while things are superficially similar, in that Pres Ben Ali had been in power there for 23 years and Hosni Mubarak has been in power in Egypt for 30 years, that's where the similarity ends. Tunisia is a small Francophile Arab country, with little influence on world events, while Egypt is the largest Arab country with 80 million people. What happens in Egypt can affect not only the whole Middle East but the whole world. Second, while Tunisia is more westernized, Egypt is the origin and center of the Muslim Brotherhood, that has spawned Al Qaeda, Hamas and numerous other Islamist groups. What happens in Egypt could potentially affect the future of the whole Arab world as well as potentially affecting peace with Israel.
There is no doubt that the chief reason for the expression of frustration in the Arab world has been the lack of development and progress over the past 50 years, that has largely resulted from reactionary repressive regimes that have kept the lid on the ferment below for too long and now it is blowing off. While westerners support the kind of reform that comes with the fall of dictators, we must also look to our own interests. All revolutions usually overshoot their mark and instead of ending up with more democracy they end up with less. Yes, the Czars were autocratic and imprisoned hundreds without trial, but Stalin, the outcome of the Russian revolution, was more repressive and imprisoned and killed hundreds of thousands. The Kaiser was no liberal democrat, but then there was Hitler!
More relevant is the case of the Shah of Iran, a Western puppet dictator who repressed all opposition. But, when there was a popular uprising against him, the US, led by that great humanitarian Pres. Jimmy Carter, gave him no support and he was overthrown by the Ayatollah Khomeini. So where there were hundreds of prisoners in the jails under the Shah, under the Islamist regime there were once again thousands murdered and imprisoned. So it is not difficult to predict what may happen, or is the most likely outcome in Egypt. The Egyptian Army will refuse to shoot protesters, the position of Pres Mubarak will quickly become untenable and he will retire alive from the scene if he is lucky. The democrats such a Mohammed El Baradei, former head of the IAEA, will appear to come to the fore. But, they command little support of at most a few thousand intellectuals. Then the masses of uneducated Egyptians who support the Muslim Brotherhood will take over, the leadership of the Brotherhood will start to control things behind the scenes. There will be a deal between the Brotherhood and the Army and Egypt will gradually become another Islamist State. That's the most likely and most pessimistic outcome. If that happens, any new Islamist Government will first dispense with US aid (Egypt gets several billion dollars a year) and will repeal the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, and declare a state of war with Israel. Pro-Western Middle class people will be arrested, tortured, imprisoned and murdered. It is a well defined process.
There are three other possibilities, the Generals will take power and eventually devolve a transfer to a democratic system. But, this is only if they are prepared to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood. Alternatively, and less likely, the so-called "popular forces" that include leftists and pro-western democrats will be able to hold the line against the Brotherhood and will prevail. The least likely possibility is that Mubarak will somehow retain his control, but aging dictators know they have few friends. The appointment of Intelligence Chief Omar |Suleiman as VP and potential successor will not satisfy the the mob. Miracles have been known to happen, but, if things go as predicted expect at least the threat of a war with Israel in a few years time. Pres. Obama is trying to tread a thin line between opposing the reactionary regime of Mubarak that the US has been supporting all along, while trying to avoid a Brotherhood takeover. But, he should note two important things, Israel and the Palestinian cause has nothing to do with this Arab violence, and as usual, Israel is a western island of peace and tranquility in a sea of Arab turmoil.
There is no doubt that the chief reason for the expression of frustration in the Arab world has been the lack of development and progress over the past 50 years, that has largely resulted from reactionary repressive regimes that have kept the lid on the ferment below for too long and now it is blowing off. While westerners support the kind of reform that comes with the fall of dictators, we must also look to our own interests. All revolutions usually overshoot their mark and instead of ending up with more democracy they end up with less. Yes, the Czars were autocratic and imprisoned hundreds without trial, but Stalin, the outcome of the Russian revolution, was more repressive and imprisoned and killed hundreds of thousands. The Kaiser was no liberal democrat, but then there was Hitler!
More relevant is the case of the Shah of Iran, a Western puppet dictator who repressed all opposition. But, when there was a popular uprising against him, the US, led by that great humanitarian Pres. Jimmy Carter, gave him no support and he was overthrown by the Ayatollah Khomeini. So where there were hundreds of prisoners in the jails under the Shah, under the Islamist regime there were once again thousands murdered and imprisoned. So it is not difficult to predict what may happen, or is the most likely outcome in Egypt. The Egyptian Army will refuse to shoot protesters, the position of Pres Mubarak will quickly become untenable and he will retire alive from the scene if he is lucky. The democrats such a Mohammed El Baradei, former head of the IAEA, will appear to come to the fore. But, they command little support of at most a few thousand intellectuals. Then the masses of uneducated Egyptians who support the Muslim Brotherhood will take over, the leadership of the Brotherhood will start to control things behind the scenes. There will be a deal between the Brotherhood and the Army and Egypt will gradually become another Islamist State. That's the most likely and most pessimistic outcome. If that happens, any new Islamist Government will first dispense with US aid (Egypt gets several billion dollars a year) and will repeal the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, and declare a state of war with Israel. Pro-Western Middle class people will be arrested, tortured, imprisoned and murdered. It is a well defined process.
There are three other possibilities, the Generals will take power and eventually devolve a transfer to a democratic system. But, this is only if they are prepared to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood. Alternatively, and less likely, the so-called "popular forces" that include leftists and pro-western democrats will be able to hold the line against the Brotherhood and will prevail. The least likely possibility is that Mubarak will somehow retain his control, but aging dictators know they have few friends. The appointment of Intelligence Chief Omar |Suleiman as VP and potential successor will not satisfy the the mob. Miracles have been known to happen, but, if things go as predicted expect at least the threat of a war with Israel in a few years time. Pres. Obama is trying to tread a thin line between opposing the reactionary regime of Mubarak that the US has been supporting all along, while trying to avoid a Brotherhood takeover. But, he should note two important things, Israel and the Palestinian cause has nothing to do with this Arab violence, and as usual, Israel is a western island of peace and tranquility in a sea of Arab turmoil.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:24 AM
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