Egyptian watershed
Like me, you are probably saturated with analysis of the Egyptian uprising. But, it seems that the situation has now reached a watershed. Under pressure from the demonstrators, US Pres. Obama and the Egyptian Army, Pres. Mubarak in a speech last night, announced that he will not stand for election again. After being in power for 30 years that's the least he could do. But, the demonstrators, including the roughly 250,000 who filled Tahrir Square last night, want him gone immediately, "Mubarak out!" is their cry. So the question is can Mubarak hang in for another 6 months and preside over an orderly transfer of power? Can democratic elections be held under those circumstances?
Forgive me if I am sceptical. A people who have never known democracy, in the midst of an intense power struggle, can hardly be expected to sit back and say, "alright we'll let him stay until then." Once loosed the forces of revolution cannot easily be controlled. The key factor is if the Army remains united and supports Mubarak's intentions. But, there are at least two other factors, the pressure for a democratic system, supported by the Western educated elite, with their supposed leader Mohammed El Baradei, who was former Head of the IAEA. Although they support democracy, they should not be confused with any pro-Israel faction. Baradei was never a friend of Israel and the US was anxious to replace him since he waffled and maybe even lied over the Iranian nuclear issue.
Then there is the Moslem Brotherhood, who as I write are plotting to take over the revolution and the transfer of power. They are the largest and best organized of the so-called "opposition" groups. Not only do they hate Mubarak for arresting, torturing and killing their members, but they have a plan of action, to make Egypt an Islamist State like Hamas in Gaza. There is no doubt that Hamas is aiding them in their plans, and that is why the Israeli Government agreed that Egypt should increase it's military presence near the Gaza border and Rafah crossing, in contravention of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. The Brotherhood spokesman today referred to Baradei as "the donkey of the revolution." In other words they will use him to pull their cart, pretending to support democratic elections, but then they will dispense with him when they are strong enough.
The key issue is whether a faction of the Army will now break away and decide to remove Mubarak sooner than the elections that are due in September, and whether or not this faction would support the Brotherhood in its aim to take power. Meanwhile there are stirrings in Jordan, where King Abdullah dropped his whole Cabinet at the first demonstration, showing how confident he is against a majority of Palestinians in his country. And Pres. Assad of Syria predicted that there will be no uprising there, since after all he is a ruthless military dictator (he didn't say that). We are still at the beginnings of the changes sweeping the Arab world, because it has been kept under control for the last 50 years by military dictators who have prevented development, change and the provision of jobs for an increasingly young population. We can't yet see the end of the process, but it isn't likely to be good for Israel. A new Government in Egypt, whatever its composition, is likely to decide to have another go at Israel, after all anti-Israel slogans are a great rallying call for uniting the people, and they can blame the previous failures on their incompetent predecessors.
Forgive me if I am sceptical. A people who have never known democracy, in the midst of an intense power struggle, can hardly be expected to sit back and say, "alright we'll let him stay until then." Once loosed the forces of revolution cannot easily be controlled. The key factor is if the Army remains united and supports Mubarak's intentions. But, there are at least two other factors, the pressure for a democratic system, supported by the Western educated elite, with their supposed leader Mohammed El Baradei, who was former Head of the IAEA. Although they support democracy, they should not be confused with any pro-Israel faction. Baradei was never a friend of Israel and the US was anxious to replace him since he waffled and maybe even lied over the Iranian nuclear issue.
Then there is the Moslem Brotherhood, who as I write are plotting to take over the revolution and the transfer of power. They are the largest and best organized of the so-called "opposition" groups. Not only do they hate Mubarak for arresting, torturing and killing their members, but they have a plan of action, to make Egypt an Islamist State like Hamas in Gaza. There is no doubt that Hamas is aiding them in their plans, and that is why the Israeli Government agreed that Egypt should increase it's military presence near the Gaza border and Rafah crossing, in contravention of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. The Brotherhood spokesman today referred to Baradei as "the donkey of the revolution." In other words they will use him to pull their cart, pretending to support democratic elections, but then they will dispense with him when they are strong enough.
The key issue is whether a faction of the Army will now break away and decide to remove Mubarak sooner than the elections that are due in September, and whether or not this faction would support the Brotherhood in its aim to take power. Meanwhile there are stirrings in Jordan, where King Abdullah dropped his whole Cabinet at the first demonstration, showing how confident he is against a majority of Palestinians in his country. And Pres. Assad of Syria predicted that there will be no uprising there, since after all he is a ruthless military dictator (he didn't say that). We are still at the beginnings of the changes sweeping the Arab world, because it has been kept under control for the last 50 years by military dictators who have prevented development, change and the provision of jobs for an increasingly young population. We can't yet see the end of the process, but it isn't likely to be good for Israel. A new Government in Egypt, whatever its composition, is likely to decide to have another go at Israel, after all anti-Israel slogans are a great rallying call for uniting the people, and they can blame the previous failures on their incompetent predecessors.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:30 AM
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