Sunday, January 08, 2012

Choose Israel!

Question: given a choice would you rather be Israel or the Arabs? Answer: anyone who chooses the Arabs needs their head examined.

There is unprecedented chaos in the Arab world, Egypt is poised between a military coup and an Islamist Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship; Syria is a bloodbath, with over 5000 dead and hundreds being killed and arrested daily; Libya is just emerging from a civil war and is beset by inter-tribal conflicts; Lebanon is dominated by Hizbollah, the pro-Iranian Shia organization, and faces a new civil war; Jordan is relatively stable, but the future of the Hashemite monarchy is not assured; Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy that has a sizeable restive Shia minority located in the oil-producing areas; Bahrain has a Sunni monarchy sitting atop a rebellious Shia majority; Iraq is taking the first baby steps towards democracy, but may soon be split into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish mini-states. With all these political and economic problems the Arabs may not get organized for another 50 years.

Israel meanwhile is a vibrant democracy, with one of its most stable coalition governments, its economy is booming (4.5% growth) and its unemployment rate is the lowest for years (5%). Both Israel and the Sunni Arab states are threatened by Iran, but the Arabs have no effective means to oppose Iran, they are militarily impotent, while Israel is a serious military threat to Iran and Iran knows it. Even more, the US cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and threaten the closure of the Straits of Hormuz to oil exports, and so Iran is flirting with destruction by carrying out military games in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile the Arabs remain self-destructive and passive.

So even though Israel is threatened by Iran, so are the Arabs, and even though Israel is threatened by the Arabs they are no real threat. This leaves the Palestinians; who would you rather choose to be, Israel or the Palestinians? It's not even close, the Palestinians are deeply split between the nationalist Fatah/PLO and the Islamist Hamas. Hamas itself is also split between those who want to remain allies of Shia Iran and those who see the Egyptian Sunni Muslim Bortherhood as their real allies. Furthermore, the PA that is an excuse for a Palestinian mini-state, has no chance of ever being a real state, because it lacks any vestige of infra-structure or organization. The world should be asking: what to do with this Palestinian problem, and the best answer is to ignore it and stop pouring money into a deep black hole. So the choice is Israel every time!


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