Sunday, March 11, 2012

Who you gonna trust?

Suppose that you are Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu, meeting with Pres. Barack Obama in the White House and Obama says to you: "OK, Bibi, I agree that you can threaten Iran as much as you like, but don't actually attack Iran before the election in November, or preferably before the inauguration in January 2013. I give you my word that if you feel it necesary to actually attack Iran after those dates, I will fully support you with all the might of the USA. But, if you attack before November, before the results are in, you will give the election to the Republicans and then I will regretfully have to oppose you. How would you like it if Israel is blamed for my defeat, the first black, democratic President the US has had. It will embitter my followers and cause bad feelings between our two countries. But, if you are patient and can wait until I am re-elected, then I will give you all the support you need." That my friends is the issue in a nutshell. Should Bibi order the IDF to attack the Iranian nuclear and other facilities as soon as he feels that the threat to Israel is imminent, i.e. before the "zone of immunity" is reached. Or should he wait, even endangering Israel, because the US President has asked him to.

The trouble with this scenario is that the President does not seem to have any concern for the actual danger to Israel. He doesn't say "if it is essential for Israel to attack Iran to ensure its survival because of the evidence of nuclear weapons development, then we will be with you." Or, "we will attack Iran as soon as it becomes clear that the sanctions are not working." No, he says "Let's wait and see what happens, let's wait and see if the sanctions work, and then we'll decide what to do." In other words, his political calculations are more important than Israel's survival! Fortunately, Bibi doesn't have to play it that way, whatever the consequences. We Israelis trust that Bibi will in fact act when it is essential, once the point of no return in the development of nuclear weapons by Iran is reached, not a minute sooner nor later!

Obama is a great speaker, he has more charisma than any of the potential Republican opponents, but he exhibits no warmth towards Israel. His speech at AIPAC was a great speech for Obama, given his actual previous actions towards Israel, but can he be believed. I am sure that Pres. Lyndon Johnson was sincere when he said to Israel in 1967 in effect, "if you have to open the Straits of Tiran, we've got your back!" He promised to send an international flotilla to open the Straits, but all he sent were two ships. Luckily Israel did not depend on him. Pres. George W. Bush wrote Israel a letter committing the US to accepting the need to change the borders with a putative PA state from the pre-1967 ceasefire lines, but Pres. Obama simply negated that letter. So who you gonna trust? Noone but yourself! Or as the IRA say "Sinn Fein," "ourselves alone!"

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home