Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Attack strategy?

There seems little doubt that there will be a ground invasion of Gaza.  Neither Israel nor any other country could afford to mobilize 75,000 men and then have them sit around for a week or more.  An attack has its own momentum and it must be organized and then launched in a short period of time, a few days.  Also, the chance of an actual ceasefire with Hamas being negotiated thru Egypt or the UN is so small that to hold the ground invasion until then would be self-defeating.  It may not have escaped notice that Hamas actually wants an IDF ground invasion of Gaza.  They know the IDF cannot destroy their organization completely and they have prepared the ground before the IDF force in advance  However, a ground offensive doesn't have to be a direct frontal attack, the most costly in terms of invading troops.
If I were determining IDF strategy in Gaza I would try to do what the terrorists least expect.  They are definitely prepared for a frontal attack by Israeli heavy armor, including tanks and artillery, across the Gaza border where they are currently massing.  That's the easy and obvious way.  I would have landings along the beachfront and drop large numbers of paratroopers behind enemy lines as it were and have them join up to make a line that in effect surrounds the terrorists and attacks them from the rear.  There would be a good supply line from the north from Ashkelon and Kibbutz Lohamei Hagetaot.  Then as the paratroopers fight their way inland, against minimal opposition, the terrorists would find themselves in a bind, since their defensive positions and entrapments would be facing the wrong way.  So naturally they would turn around to face the approaching threat from the sea.  But, then I would hit them with the heavy weapons coming from Israel across the border.   But, I would avoid the main cities, surround them rather that have the infantry engaged in dangerous urban warfare.   But, have helicopter and special units attack specific targets, such as hospitals and mosques, where Hamas maintains operationsl centers as they did in Operation Cast Lead, that the IDF could not attack then.  These units and helicopters should come form the western sidfe of the cities where the preprepared ambushes are likely to be lightest.
This strategy is based on previous experience.  What went wrong in the Second Lebanon War was the the IDF walked into a huge trap.  Hizbollah had 10 years to prepare for the next Israeli invasion.  They had mined most of the obvious houses that would be targets for the IDF to capture and rest up in during the first phase of the invasion.  When IDF troops had amassed there, they simply blew the houses up.  I have no doubt that Hamas has learned this lesson, since they are very adept at digging tunnels and they were trained by the same Iranian National Guard units that taught Hizbollah how to resist an IDF invasion.  Let's not be duped into the same deadly error and go rushing directly at their well-entrenched ambushes.  Let's try to leap over them by attacking from where they least expect it.   


Blogger Alan Secker said...

Amazing what can happen in 24 hours. Let's see if something positive results from back-door diplomacy over the coming weeks.

9:01 PM  

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