Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The next round?

At present, the Arab countries are in turmoil and are no realistic threat to the existence of the Jewish State of Israel in their midst.  Syria is wracked by civil war and ca. 40,000 Syrians are dead, Israel could not have dreamed up such a fate for its rejectionist Arab enemy.  Egypt is mired in political controversy while the Muslim Brotherhood attempts to hijack the revolution from the democrats.  Lebanon and Jordan sit and await the outcomes that will have significant consequences for them.  Only Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States among the Sunni States seem to be sitting out the paroxysm of violence.
Meanwhile the Shia axis from Iran to Hizbollah in Lebanon is not faring well.  Hizbollah is bracing itself for losing its control over Lebanon when its ally the Assad regime falls in Syria.  And this collapse will be a major blow to the Iranian regime's dream of exporting its "revolution."  As far as the Shia-Sunni conflict is concerned, neither side can look to the immediate future with confidence.  Only the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb is a real threat to Israel.
But, as the Muslim Brotherhood comes to the fore in Egypt (thru hijacking the elections) and in Syria (thru civil war), the Sunni extremists will be in ascendance.  They will rule North Africa from Tunisia and Libya to Egypt and then Syria will influence Lebanon and the Sunnis will battle the Shia there.  It is likely that a Sunni-led extremist movement will topple the imposed Hashemite monarchy in Jordan, particularly since Palestinians make up 70% of the Kingdom's population.  If this happens it will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian-majority country in what is now Jordan, that may once again change its name, this time to "Palestine." 
If all these Arab States are dominated by a Muslim religious ethic, as opposed to a nationalist or socialist ethic that motivated them previously, then they will consider that the reason that they did not defeat Israel before was that they were insufficiently pious.  Now, with God on their side they will likely try again, having forgotten the lessons of the past.  But, the military gap between Israel and the Arabs has widened over the years and whereas Israel was a weak agrarian nation in the past, it is now a modern technologically advanced state.  If they try their luck again the Arabs will be defeated again, only this time Israel will expel the Palestinians into their own homeland which is now Jordan.  This not a likely scenario, but it is a likely as any you'll read about in your newspaper today.


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