Monday, January 28, 2013

Failed Arab States

Israel is surrounded by failed Arab states.  All of them, Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, are what have been called "cess-pits" by a British commentator. 
Egypt, that is the largest Arab country in terms of population, recently had its first democratic election in history.  But, what came out of that, a Muslim Brotherhood President, Morsi, and a parliament dominated by extreme Muslims.  It was reported recently that Morsi before he became President, stated that Jews are "bloodsuckers" and "sons of pigs and monkeys" (in this he was only quoting the Koran), thus revealing his personal views. The dedicated democrats in Egypt are rioting against the Government and have sacked the MB offices in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez.  There were riots in Port Said over the trial results in which 21 were sentenced to death for the killing of 75 people after a soccer match last year, causing another 50 deaths. It never stops, and the idea that such disputes can be resolved peacefully is simply foreign to Egypt.  It will probably take another 100 years before Egypt can operate at western norms with a civilized system of government.
Syria is in a state of civil war in which a variety of Sunni groups are fighting to overthrow the Assad regime that is dominated by the minority Alawite sect (similar to the Shia of Iran).  In the past almost 2 years of this insurrection ca. 60,000 Syrians have been killed and ca. 1 million have been rendered homeless and are living as refugees in camps over the borders in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.  Syria is an artificial state containing three distinct groups, Alawite in the NW, Sunni in the center and Kurds in the NE.  Whether they will break apart remains to be seen, but the situation is one of stalemate and death. Syria will remain a failed state for years to come. 
In Jordan, there were elections last week, but the most powerful political party, the Muslim Brotherhood, boycotted the election and refuses to cooperate with the Parliament, where they are not represented.  They oppose the power of the Monarchy that is dominated by indigenous Beduin.  The Monarchy is not stable without control of the army to put down any opposition.  Palestinians (from west Palestine) are ca. 70% of the population and represent a source of instability.  It is unlikely that King Abdullah's attempts at fostering democracy can stave off the forces that intend to overthrow his regime.  Jordan is on the way to becoming a failed state.
Lebanon is a chronic case of instability, an artificial country, cobbled together by the French in 1922 to protect the Christians as well as the Shia minority.  Ironically the Shia have become the most powerful force in Lebanese politics because they have the only militia, Hizbollah, that is still armed and is more powerful than the Lebanese Army, on the excuse that they are armed to repulse Israel.  In fact, Sheikh Nasrullah is using his power to control Lebanese politics acting as a proxy of Iran and Syria.  Lebanon is another failed state.
No wonder Israel is reluctant to negotiate with the Palestinians and Pres. Abbas of the PA is making impossible preconditions.  A Palestinian State would certainly be another failed State, since it it has no hope of being self-sufficient and is divided in two (Gaza and the West Bank) and would certainly be a haven for terrorists.   By contrast, Israel is a stable liberal democracy, with a thriving economy, that protects human rights and is a magnet for immigration.  Anyone can travel here and see for themselves.  Travel of westerners to any of the surrounding failed Arab states is not advisable.


Post a Comment

<< Home