Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Iraq civil war

The fighting in Iraq that has been killing approximately 20-30 people a day from suicide and other bombings has now escalated into near civil war. Al-Qaeda affiliated groups of Sunni extremists have taken over the two main cities, Ramadi and Faluja in western Anbar province, the Sunni heartland of Iraq. The government of Iraq under Pres. Maliki is basically Shia, since the majority of Iraqis are Shia and the Sunni parties have refused to cooperate with the government. So while the terrorists and extremists on each side are busy blowing each other's people up, the so-called democratic parties are not cooperating either. Now the Iraqi Government has sent the Iraqi army to besiege Ramadi and Faluja with artillery in order to wrest them from the control of the Sunni terrorist organizations. This sectarian violence is as near to civil war as you can get without it being declared a civil war.

This was the predicted scenario when the US and allied forces left Iraq, as they have done. It was predicted that the sectarian violence plaguing Iraq would spread into a civl war and that Iraq as a country, that was an invention of that great British imperialist Winston Churchill when he was Foreign Secretary, would split up into its three constituent parts, the Kurds in the north, the Shia in the east and the Sunni in the west. They should probably never have been cobbled together in the first place. The Kurds already have a thriving entity in northern Iraq and are in control of most of the oil fields, that will no doubt bring them into conflict again with the Iraqi Government.

What does this remind you of? Why, Syria of course, the same situation pertains there, except that France was the imperialist power in Syria before it achieved independence. Now the Sunnis, who are a majority in Syria, are battling the Alawite-dominated government in Damascus. It is quite likely that Syria will split into a Sunni heartland, an Alawite pro-Shia dominated coastal strip in the west and a Kurdish province in the east. There are two other possible outcomes, that the Kurdish provinces in Syria and Iraq will join together, which will anger the Turks very much, since they have a large Kurdish region in the east. Also, that the Sunnis of Syria and Iraq might join together and form a new Arab heartland of the MIddle East. The extremists affiliated with al Qaeda are already working towards this end, and have formed an alliance of terrorist groups called ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

From one end of the Arab world to the other, from Libya in the west to Iraq in the east, all the countries, including Egypt and Lebanon, are now in turmoil. Only Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States seem immune. However, Jordan is an atificial State also established by Winston Churchill, and few people think the Hashemite monarchy can last another generation. The only progressive Arab countries are in the Gulf, but even some of them are supporting Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. So much so that the Egyptian Military cammander Gen al-Sisi called the Qatari Ambassador in because of his country's support for the MB. Things in the Arab world are going to get a lot worse before they ever get better.


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