Lebanon unleashed

I have been accused of being "pollyannaish" about Assad and the Syrian role
in Lebanon. I note that my previous article was entitled "The Syrian
shuffle," indicating that Assad is trying to avoid what he professes he is
doing, namely withdrawing his troops from Lebanon. In today's Jerusalem
Post you can take your pick, on the front page there is an article entitled
"His troops leave but Assad subtly tightens his grip on Lebanon," and on the
back page the Editor of the Post, David Horowitz, has written an article
entitled "The eclipse of Assad." Who is right, has Assad been irretrievably
damaged by the recent events or has he managed to overcome them?
There are of course contradictory indications. The demonstrations following
the assassination of Rafik Hariri that led to the removal of the pro-Syrian
Lebanese Government now seem to have been reversed by the appointment by
President Lahoud of the same PM Karame to form a new Government. As before
the deputies who voted for this Government are predominantly pro-Syrian and
so will be the Government. So it is a case of two steps forward, one step
back. But, nevertheless a previously unimaginable blow was dealt to Syrian
control in Lebanon that cannot be fully reversed.
This reversal came about because of the much larger pro-Syrian rally held
last week by the Shi'ite minority in Lebanon, led by the head of Hizbullah,
Sheikh Nasrallah. However, although the Shi'ites may be the largest single
minority in Lebanon, they do not constitute a majority of the total
population. Although accurate statistics are hard to come by, the Christian
population (consisting of eleven separate sects of which the Maronites is
the largest) is ca. 30% of the population, and among the Muslim sects (5
altogether) the Sunnis are supposed to be around 20% of the population and
the Palestinians are 12%. Given that the Druze are also around 15% that
leaves the Shi'ites at 22% of the population, nowhere near a majority! So
although they were able, with Syrian help, to bring out several hundred
thousand Shi'as, this does not mean that they can in any way themselves
control Lebanon. Also, the relationship between Hizbollah and the Syrians
has been subtly altered, since the Syrians now depend more on the Shia in
Lebanon than vice versa. At the same time the European Union has voted to
consider labeling Hizbollah as a terrorist organization.
There are also other factors. There are some moderate Shia who do not
support Hizbollah, especially those who constituted the Amal militia group
that was disbanded in 1989, they resent the fact that Hizbollah was allowed
to continue. The Christians with their French/European culture are
anti-Syrian, and so are the Sunnis. The Assad family are from the Awalekite
minority (17%) in Syria, that is a heretical Muslim group much like the
Shi'a. They have managed to keep control in Syria by taking over the armed
forces (remember Hafez Assad was Head of the Syrian Air Force before he took
power). The Sunnis in Lebanon and in Syria don't like the Awalekites, but
so far can do nothing about it. Hafez Assad killed about 20,000 Sunni
Muslims when the Muslim Brotherhood, the predecessor of Hamas, tried to
start a coup in Hama in 1982. But, his son Bashar is not considered to be
as ruthless as he was, and times have changed.
Pres. Bush himself has laid down an ultimatum to Assad to get out of Lebanon
by May, when there are supposed to be elections. In doing so he also
emphasized that he must remove his secret police. It is unlikely that this
will be accomplished, and then with US credibility on line and with wide
international support, it is likely that the UN Security Council will vote
for sanctions against Syria. It is also likely that if elections occur in
Lebanon the majority will vote for an anti-Syrian government. Before these
"ifs" can be accomplished some water has to flow under the bridge of time.
Don't expect Syria to give up its control of Lebanon without a struggle and
don't expect real democracy any time soon. But, the likelihood is that the
situation of Syria in Lebanon will gradually be eroded, with the possibility
of internal strife. It has been reported that in the past few weeks ca.
b$10 have been withdrawn from Lebanese Banks. Powerful forces have been
unleashed in Lebanon that cannot be readily restrained.