Democratization?

The Bush doctrine of democratization first (as derived from Sharansky),
before there can be peace and development in the Middle East, is in for a
bumpy ride. Of course, the main test case is Iraq, where the US has a major
commitment of political and economic treasure. Although the Iraqi cabinet
is due to be announced any day now, the insurgent attacks continue, and the
largest recent demonstration was a combined Shia-Sunni one that was anti-US.
If the Iraqis manage to write an acceptable constitution and then organize
real elections with multiple parties, and the Sunnis cooperate, it will be a
major miracle. And the insurgency shows no signs of slowing down.
In Palestine, the US lauded the election of Pres. Abbas as the first step
towards a reformed PA. However, not much has happened since. After much
delay, Pres Abbas announced the reorganization of the security services into
three corps, and he also ordered that the militias disarm and join the
security services. This has been agreed between Israel and the PA as a way
to resolve the situation of wanted fugitive gunmen, of whom there are some
1,200 on Israel's list. In the J'sam Post today it is reported that some
Hamas gunmen are disarming and joining the PA security services, although
the proportion is unknown. Some of them want to delay, since they also want
to retaliate against Israel. In a meeting between Dep. Pres. Shaath and the
al Aksa Brigades (military wing of Fatah) in Gaza last week, they simply
refused to disarm. Also, Fatah gunmen stormed the PA buildings in Tulkarm
and Nablus this past weekend in order to force the PA to pay them wages. In
Tulkarm the gunmen went on a shooting rampage and closed down the city, but
only one person was injured. So far only 85 out of some 530 al Aksa
fugitives on Israel's wanted list are reported to have agreed to disarm and
join the security forces. Although Abbas has nominally some 58,000 men
under his command in eleven forces, his actual control over them is largely
theoretical.
Hamas has announced that they will contest the PA elections set for July,
and it is currently thought that they may even win a majority. That would
be a disaster for Abbas, Israel and the US, since the declared aim of Hamas
is to continue the "armed struggle" against Israel, i.e. a continuation of
terrorism. As a result Abbas is considering delaying the elections,
something that Pres. Bush has criticized. There is also the possibility
that in order to increase the popularity of Fatah, Abbas may order a series
of major terrorist attacks against Israel. It seems that the only way to be
popular in the PA is to carry out larger more effective terrorist attacks
than the opposition. So the irony is that in order for Israel to strengthen
the democratic chances of Fatah, we have to be prepared to accept a renewed
campaign of terrorism against us. I hope Israel does not fall into this
ridiculous dangerous trap, of strengthening Abbas so that he can attack us,
in order to gain popularity among his own people! So much for
democratization of the PA.
In Lebanon, it took the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the ensuing
demonstrations to catalyze the withdrawal of Syria from that country. But,
in the wake of counter-demonstrations, Pres. Lahoud has picked another
pro-Syrian politician, Najib Mikati, to form a new government. And that
Government will be responsible for organizing the elections, that also may
be delayed.
Finally, in Pakistan, "our favorite" Gen. Musharraf has arrested the leader
of the opposition PPP (Pakistan People's Party) upon his return to Lahore,
as well as thousands of his followers, in order to stop pro-PPP
demonstrations. This is about as anti-democratic as you can get, yet
Musharraf is Bush's bright-eyed Pakistani leader, who is anti-terrorist and
is even now talking peace with India.
So the road to democracy is far from smooth, and can be expected to take a
few unexpected twists and turns before the Bush doctrine even appears
remotely to apply. Nevertheless, in the face of the drive for "freedom" in
all these countries, Israel cannot be seen to be in any way opposing this
ideological thrust. Consequently, the unilateral disengagement from Gaza
and northern Samaria is one of the ways that Sharon has adopted to satisfy
Bush, for now. In future, if this doctrinal approach unravels in the face
of Middle East realities, then will be the time for Sharon to carry out the
second stage of his plan, which in the absence of a real peace partner, will
be to unilaterally annex those portions of the West Bank with high Jewish
density of population. If Sharon stays in power long enough, and if Abbas
cannot deliver (much like Arafat, either because he can't or won't) then
this may be how things develop in the absence of real democratization in the
region.