On the other side of the fence

While Israel is wracked by the debate over the disengagement plan, what is
happening over the other side of the fence. In the last municipal elections
held in the PA a few weeks ago Hamas took over ca. 60% of the local city
councils. The old councils dominated by Fatah were largely swept away, and
new faces came in, particularly Hamas faces. One reason why they were
elected was that they represent a break with the corrupt past, and they are
supposed to be less subject to corruption than their Fatah counterparts.
Apparently so far the new mayors and councils are having a positive effect
on life in the PA, improving social conditions and services long neglected.
Whether this is a one time "protest vote" against Fatah or will result in
future in even larger Hamas majorities cannot be predicted, but in a way it
augers badly for the future. While Fatah has chosen the way of negotiations
to achieve peace, Hamas is committed to the use of violence to either force
Israel to submit or to destroy it altogether.
In a reflection of Pres. Abbas' weak position within the PA, on Weds night a
group of dozens of armed Fatah gunmen tried to force their way into the
Mukata compound in Ramallah. When the security guards prevented them from
entering they fired at the buildings. Pres. Abbas was inside holding
meetings but no-one was hurt. After leaving the compound the gunmen
rampaged through the center of Ramallah shooting up restaurants and shops
and beating people. They forced many stores close at gunpoint, and entered
restaurants and cafes threatening to shoot the clientele and the waiters.
PA police arrived on the scene but did nothing to stop them. Eyewitnesses
said the police were afraid of the gunmen, who were from the al Aksa
Martyr's Brigades, the military wing of Fatah, responsible for most of the
terrorist incidents in Israel. One eyewitness said they behaved like a
"mafia" while another said he only saw such incidents in "cowboy movies."
On Thursday Abbas met with his security services and issued a strong
statement condemning the "murderous attacks" and threatening to arrest the
perpetrators. He also beefed up security in the city and promised
compensation to those whose premises were damaged. The head of security on
the West Bank was reportedly fired by Abbas.
There were multiple reasons for the gunmen's attack, including their
frustration over not being incorporated into the police force and paid
accordingly, their refusal to hand over their guns as ordered, and an
incident in Tulkarm the day before when a group of Fatah gunmen attacked and
destroyed a PA police encampment after the police shot at a car that would
not stop for inspection. They claimed they were trying to enter the Mukata
to "negotiate" with Abbas, but during their rampage they shouted threats
against Abbas' life.
Although we knew that Abbas does not have the kind of control that Arafat
did, nevertheless, his hold on power seems quite fragile. The problem is
that once the Fatah gunmen were allowed to set up their own terrorist
organization, it may be impossible to get the cat back into the bag. He
either has to respond and crack down on these gunmen or failing that be
reduced to a figurehead. So Abbas is faced with two strong opponents, the
Islamist resistance that wouldn't even agree to a ceasefire, and the split
within his own Fatah ranks.
What does this portend for Israel? You could argue that given the weakness
of Abbas' control over the PA this is no time for Israel to start a major
change on the ground, such as the disengagement from Gaza. Better to wait
until Abbas either establishes his control and then coordinate with him, or
forget about the disengagement for now. On the other hand, one of Sharon's
original motivations was to remove Israel's policy decisions from the
effective imprimatur of the Palestinian condition. Better to decide what is
in Israel's best interests and act accordingly rather than accept a
stalemate. There is no right answer to this predicament, but I tend to
support the latter, take action rather than wait while the Palestinians get
their act together, if they ever will.