Pros and cons

Here is a list of recent events in the Middle East that give confidence for
the future. These could be said to result from, or at least are consistent
with, the Bush doctrine that the democratization of the Arab States will
result in a more peaceful Middle East.
1. The Iraqi election was carried out successfully against a background of
deadly insurgency.
2. Mahmud Abbas was elected President of the PA with 65% of the vote (not
99%).
3. There have been massive anti-Syrian demonstrations in Lebanon, the
largest of which had ca. 1 million people (pro-Syrian demonstrations are not
unusual).
4. Pres. Assad of Syria stated that all Syrian troops and intelligence
personnel will be withdrawn from Lebanon, and the first stage of the
redeployment of most Syrian forces to the Bekaa Valley or into Syria itself
has taken place.
4. Pres. Mubarak of Egypt has decided to amend the Egyptian constitution to
allow competing candidates for Presidential elections in Egypt.
5. Ayman Nour, leader of an opposition party in Egypt, was released from
jail under international pressure.
6. The number of terrorist attacks against Israel have been significantly
reduced (even though a terrorist incident killed 5 Israelis two weeks ago).
7. The impending Israeli disengagement from Gaza is being planned, hopefully
with PA coordination.
8. The 60th commemoration of the Holocaust was held at the UN General
Assembly, and 40 international leaders including the UN Secty. Gen. Kofi
Annan are visiting Israel for the opening of the new extension to Yad
Vashem.
9. The Ambassadors of Jordan and Egypt have been returned to Israel.
10. Israel handed over security control of Jericho to the PA and Tulkarm and
Kalkilya are expected to be transferred soon.
But, of course there are some contrary indications.
1. At another meeting between the PA and the Islamist parties in Cairo, they
decided to continue the current temporary "calm," short of the ceasefire
expected by the PA, Egypt and Israel.
2. Hizbollah continues on its path of fighting Israel, with no diminution of
the degree of hatred against Israel as expressed in its recent pro-Syrian
rally in Beirut.
3. Syrian forces may be leaving Lebanon, but that does not mean that Syrian
influence won't still be strongly felt there.
4. The Gaza Disengagement may result in a significant rift between right and
left in Israeli society.
5. The Disengagement will not satisfy the opponents of Israel, but will stir
them to demand more concessions.
6. Hamas may do better than Fatah in the upcoming PA local elections.
While these lists can be compared and debated, there is no doubt that the
dynamic of the Middle East has changed for the better. While the talk of
peace is in the air the actual situation on the ground has not yet changed
significantly for the better.