Political jigsaw

The budget, the referendum, the disengagement and politics have all become
so entangled in a complex maze that it is almost impossible to understand
and to follow on a daily basis.
Last night a key piece in the jig-saw puzzle was put into place when the
leader of the Shinui Party Tommy Lapid finally agreed to support the
Sharon/Netanyahu state budget for 2005 with his 14 votes. So that now one
can confidently state that the budget will pass, and as a consequence so
will the disengagement plan, probably without a referendum.
The cost to the electorate was not cheap, a case of politics as usual.
First, Sharon switched his coalition and obtained the support of the Labor
and leftist parties for disengagement in exchange for his lapsed right wing
support. Then he "bribed" the small religious parties (UTJ and others) to
support him with a payment of 290 million shekels towards the cost of their
kindergartens and other interests. Since he did this, the anti-religious
Shinui Party bolted the coalition, but has now also been "bribed" to give
their support with a payment of NIS m600 towards their favorite interests,
the students, the universities and social issues. And only just in time, 3
days before the deadline.
The fact that this agreement was finalized after the two leaders, Sharon and
Lapid, watched the Ireland-Israel soccer match together, that Israel managed
to draw in the last minute 1-1, may have helped Lapid's decision.
Incidentally the scorer of the crucial goal was an Israeli Arab, Abas Suan,
one of several on the team. It's like Sharon managed to score a last minute
goal to save his government.
One of the main reasons Lapid folded was that he did not want to be the one
that prevented not only the budget passing, but if the Government had been
defeated it would have resulted in a new election and therefore the
disengagement from Gaza would have been at least long delayed or more likely
thwarted forever. Since this has happened now, the supporters of the
referendum to decide whether or not there should be a disengagement from
Gaza have been outflanked and the issue may have become moot. This will not
please the Likud rebels or the settlers who had hoped to fatally delay the
plan with a referendum. Although Finance Minister Netanyahu will be happy
his budget will be passed, he was also a supporter of a referendum, and so
he may have lost that round. In order not to disrupt his budget he has
declared that the extra payments of NIS m890 will have to come from already
assigned ministerial budgets.
So now the road looks clear, the budget will pass, the referendum will be
defeated and the disengagement from Gaza will go ahead. The re-statement
of support for Israeli retention of densely Jewish populated areas of the
West Bank into Israel by Condoleeza Rice (clarifying the commitment after
the reports of US Ambassador Kurzer's statements) will help Sharon in
bolstering support for the disengagement, seen as part of the price Israel
must pay for this support. Nevertheless, in such a complex situation little
is clear and nothing can be taken for granted.