The Iranian axis

The final remaining existential threat to the State of Israel is the Iranian
axis, including Syria and Hizbollah in southern Lebanon. This is not to say
that all the other Arab combatants have made peace with Israel, but at least
two have signed peace treaties, Jordan and Egypt, and at the upcoming Arab
League meeting King Abdullah of Jordan will present an improved peace treaty
based on the Saudi plan of last year, that he will ask all of the Arab
League members to endorse. This Treaty will not be acceptable to Israel,
but at least they are moving in the right direction.
This cannot be said of Iran that is still surreptitiously developing atomic
weapons to use on you know who (as Tom Lehrer said). The US has put Iran
on notice, accept an agreement with the European group and stop the
development of weapons grade material, or expect UN sanctions, and possibly
other actions.
This week PM Sharon is going to the US where he will meet Pres. Bush at his
ranch. Sharon may be the only other world leader who also owns and runs a
ranch. Their main topic of conversation will be what to do with Iran. It
is unlikely that the Mullahs will back down, and so it may become necessary
for Israel or the US to strike at the Iranian weapons sites. However, this
will be a lot more difficult than when Israel destroyed the Osiris reactor
in Baghdad in 1988. The Iranian sites are scattered around and there are
more of them and they are better protected (underground, etc.). There is no
doubt that Israel will receive the world's condemnation if it does this
strike, but now the crucial decision is to have US backing. If Sharon is
satisfied by Bush's support, then if Iran does not change its policies
within 9 months expect a strong Israeli military strike against Iran.
The threat from Syria fades in comparison with that from Iran, but
nevertheless Syria is formally allied to Iran, and it harbors the
headquarters of most of the Palestinian terrorist groups in Damascus. PM
Abbas has offered that they should all return to Gaza once the IDF has left
under the disengagement plan. That would make Gaza a mini-terrorist state,
which it is in fact already. As exhibition of this fact was the inability
of PM Abbas and Pres. Mubarak of Egypt to persuade the 13 terrorist groups
in their meeting in Cairo last week to do any more than accept a conditional
"calm" up to the end of the year, in place of the open-ended ceasefire that
was expected. It is clear that Abbas does not control the situation in
Gaza.
Syria also supports Hizbollah and sends it arms and money from Iran.
Hizbollah is the only independent armed militia in Lebanon, and the Lebanese
Government and Army are in no position to confront it. The latest car
bombing in the Christian area of Lebanon shows what the pro-Syrian groups,
notably Hizbollah, think of the demonstrations against Syria. This is the
typical way that the groups in Lebanon communicate with each other. As long
as they are facing internal conflict Hizbollah is not so much of a threat to
Israel. But, in order to show their capability they often use Israel as a
punching bag to remind the others what they can do. With a purported cache
of 10,000 rockets Hizbollah could do enormous damage to northern Israel if
it unleashed them. Hizbollah is also the conduit for Iranian support for
various Palestinian terrorist groups, particularly Islamic Jihad.
So the Iran-Syria-Hizbollah axis is a combination of committed anti-Israel
enemies that must be faced. The temporary calming with the Palestinians is
good. But, any outbreak of violence with any other enemy can quickly set us
back to square one with the Palestinians and Abbas seems to have no means to
stop that.