Going our way?
There are certain events that could not be predicted, that are nevertheless going our way. Among these are:
1. Syria's pullout from Lebanon; The retreat of Syria from Lebanon according to UN resolutions and under threat from the international community is definitely a win for Israel and a loss for Pres. Bashar Assad of Syria. Lebanon represented a second front in Syria's war against Israel, and it is now gone. Even though all of Syria's military forces have been withdrawn, some security and political forces remain. However, they have lost most of their credibility with the Lebanese people, and many of the pro-Syrian Lebanese have been forced to resign their positions. The main question now is whether or not Hizbullah will also be forced to disarm by the pressure of the international and Lebanese communities, now that they no longer have the protection of the Syrian forces and the supply lines that Syria previously maintained to them from Iran through Damascus. If Hizbullah actually transforms itself into a Shia political party, then the military situation in northern Israel will be significantly improved. Also, this withdrawal is a tremendous loss of face to Assad, and may in time lead to the downfall of his Ba'athist regime, which is a hereditary, economically backward, rigid dictatorship.
2. Russian Pres. Putin's visit to Israel; The first visit of a Russian President to Israel is taking place now, and Pres. Putin has gone out of his way to be friendly towards Israel, speaking out against terrorism and anti-Semitism. However, this friendship is superficial, since at the same time Putin is selling missiles to Syria and nuclear technology to Iran. Further, he defends these sales with questionable logic, that they don't threaten Israel. On the contrary, they clearly do, but Putin is busy flexing his muscles showing Russian influence in the world and earning money for his country. He has also proposed a Middle East peace conference in Moscow, but that is not likely to happen due to US and Israeli opposition, since neither of them will participate in such a conference until the Road Map has advanced to its second stage, when a conference is called for.
3. Pres. Abbas' threatens those still using violence against Israel; Pres. Abbas of the PA is seen as weak and irresolute. His speech today in Gaza to his reorganized security forces represents the strongest statement so far that he will not tolerate a renewal of violence against Israel. Although rockets and mortars are being fired daily and suicide bombings are being attempted, so far the level of violence is remaining low. Earlier this week there was a security alert and three Palestinian youths were captured in a car on Route 4, then two youths, 14 and 15 year olds, were captured at a check point near Nablus carrying boxes containing ammunition and bombs. Then yesterday there was a security alert in Jerusalem. Abbas said in his speech that the ceasefire is more in the Palestinian's interest than in Israel's, and he threatened that he will act strongly against anyone who breaks the Palestinian consensus. He has replaced a large number of long-time security leaders, and the question now is whether or not his new appointees will obey his orders and act accordingly.
4. The Palestinian journalist's boycott of Pres. Abbas; A large group of Palestinian journalists have declared a boycott on reporting Pres. Abbas' activities because some of them were roughed up and had their cameras broken while they were waiting to report on Abbas' speech. A special security force at the meeting in Gaza took the law into their own hands, and attacked the journalists. Now they have carried out a sit-down protest in his compound in Ramallah. Reporters who had previously been used to being part of the PA, being paid by Arafat and controlled by the security forces, now have come to expect a certain amount of freedom of the press. In fact Abbas has transferred control of the PA Radio and TV from the Office of the President to the Minister of Information, and has stopped Arafat's tradition of cash payments to journalists, even though they were supposedly working for independent media organizations. So some things are changing, but it is not clear if they will ever reach a state of maturity that looks like a really free press and a properly functioning security service.
1. Syria's pullout from Lebanon; The retreat of Syria from Lebanon according to UN resolutions and under threat from the international community is definitely a win for Israel and a loss for Pres. Bashar Assad of Syria. Lebanon represented a second front in Syria's war against Israel, and it is now gone. Even though all of Syria's military forces have been withdrawn, some security and political forces remain. However, they have lost most of their credibility with the Lebanese people, and many of the pro-Syrian Lebanese have been forced to resign their positions. The main question now is whether or not Hizbullah will also be forced to disarm by the pressure of the international and Lebanese communities, now that they no longer have the protection of the Syrian forces and the supply lines that Syria previously maintained to them from Iran through Damascus. If Hizbullah actually transforms itself into a Shia political party, then the military situation in northern Israel will be significantly improved. Also, this withdrawal is a tremendous loss of face to Assad, and may in time lead to the downfall of his Ba'athist regime, which is a hereditary, economically backward, rigid dictatorship.
2. Russian Pres. Putin's visit to Israel; The first visit of a Russian President to Israel is taking place now, and Pres. Putin has gone out of his way to be friendly towards Israel, speaking out against terrorism and anti-Semitism. However, this friendship is superficial, since at the same time Putin is selling missiles to Syria and nuclear technology to Iran. Further, he defends these sales with questionable logic, that they don't threaten Israel. On the contrary, they clearly do, but Putin is busy flexing his muscles showing Russian influence in the world and earning money for his country. He has also proposed a Middle East peace conference in Moscow, but that is not likely to happen due to US and Israeli opposition, since neither of them will participate in such a conference until the Road Map has advanced to its second stage, when a conference is called for.
3. Pres. Abbas' threatens those still using violence against Israel; Pres. Abbas of the PA is seen as weak and irresolute. His speech today in Gaza to his reorganized security forces represents the strongest statement so far that he will not tolerate a renewal of violence against Israel. Although rockets and mortars are being fired daily and suicide bombings are being attempted, so far the level of violence is remaining low. Earlier this week there was a security alert and three Palestinian youths were captured in a car on Route 4, then two youths, 14 and 15 year olds, were captured at a check point near Nablus carrying boxes containing ammunition and bombs. Then yesterday there was a security alert in Jerusalem. Abbas said in his speech that the ceasefire is more in the Palestinian's interest than in Israel's, and he threatened that he will act strongly against anyone who breaks the Palestinian consensus. He has replaced a large number of long-time security leaders, and the question now is whether or not his new appointees will obey his orders and act accordingly.
4. The Palestinian journalist's boycott of Pres. Abbas; A large group of Palestinian journalists have declared a boycott on reporting Pres. Abbas' activities because some of them were roughed up and had their cameras broken while they were waiting to report on Abbas' speech. A special security force at the meeting in Gaza took the law into their own hands, and attacked the journalists. Now they have carried out a sit-down protest in his compound in Ramallah. Reporters who had previously been used to being part of the PA, being paid by Arafat and controlled by the security forces, now have come to expect a certain amount of freedom of the press. In fact Abbas has transferred control of the PA Radio and TV from the Office of the President to the Minister of Information, and has stopped Arafat's tradition of cash payments to journalists, even though they were supposedly working for independent media organizations. So some things are changing, but it is not clear if they will ever reach a state of maturity that looks like a really free press and a properly functioning security service.
posted by Jack Cohen at 10:45 AM
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