The good, the bad and the ugly

Who are the winners in the British General election? Each of the three
major parties will tell you that they are, Labor because they scored a third
win, Conservatives because they significantly cut Labor's majority, and
Liberal Democrats because they increased their number of seats to make them
a serious third party. But, the results could also be considered a net loss
for all three parties, Labor because they went down from a 167 to a 64
majority, Conservatives because they did not manage to overthrow Labor's
government, and the Lib Dems because they are still a long way down as the
third party.
Each Party leader hopes they will do better next time, but each Party
leader's tenure may be limited. Tony Blair because he presided over such a
loss and is considered a liability by many members of his Party, so that he
may soon have to stand aside and make room for Gordon Brown to take over
from him. Michael Howard may have saved himself some time because of his
Party's significant increase in seats, but maybe not too long, and Charles
Kennedy of the Lib Dems may last somewhat longer than the others.
What is the significance for Israel in this election result? Maybe not much.
Commentators spoke of there being no "Jewish vote" in the UK anymore, and
consequently no appeal by the politicians to Jewish causes. The themes of
the AUT academic boycott and the increase in anti-Semitism in Britain, that
worry Jews, did not appear in the election campaign, and are really
non-issues. The Israel-Palestinian conflict hardly mattered, and then only
for Blair as a partial way to deflect some of the attention away from the
Iraq war. But, it didn't really work since the question of Blair's
integrity was made a campaign issue by Howard, and the media attention to
this issue was excessive. Blair's anti-war opposition probably accounted for
most of the losses the Labor Party sustained and the other two parties
gained. But, Blair is still in power, he is still backing Pres. Bush and is
a strong supporter of Israel. His eventual replacement Gordon Brown is
equally supportive of Israel, so there is no likely change on the horizon.
The Conservatives are also pro-Israel, and only the Lib Dems might
ironically be considered a less pro-Israel party.
One of the ugly results of the election was the victory by a wide margin of
George Galloway who was elected to Parliament representing his Respect
party. This was achieved not only on an anti-war, anti-Blair platform, with
a defeat of the Labor candidate, but also with the strong support of the 40%
of Muslims living in his Tower Hamlets (Bethnal Green) constituency. This
is one of the first cases of Muslims in Britain flexing their political
muscles. Maybe the eclipse of the Jewish vote and the concomitant growth of
the Muslim vote indicates further trends in the future. The marginal
British National Party and the UK Independence Party (anti-EU) both did very
poorly in the election.
Another election result is worth mentioning, Fatah defeated Hamas in the PA
local elections yesterday, obtaining a 60% to 30% majority (of course Hamas
is complaining about electoral fraud). This result is good news for Pres.
Abbas and for Israel and the Americans, who have put a lot of emphasis on
democratization. These are the first local Palestinian elections in 29 years
(not 15 as I mistakenly stated previously, which is the time since the last
national elections for the Palestine Legislative Council, next due in July),
and it gives Abbas' party a strong lead in local town councils.
It is reported that the process of disarming local militants has been
completed successfully by the newly reconstituted security forces in Jericho
and Tulkarm, the two cities on the West Bank so far handed over by Israel to
PA control. Israel held up the continuation of this process until they were
satisfied by progress in disarming militants, and now the handover will
continue, starting with Kalkilya. The cities of Ramallah, Nablus and Jenin
will pose far greater challenges to the authority of the Palestinian
security forces if and when they are handed over.