The Day After

The media has been full of pictures of the struggle going on in Gaza,
closely followed by commentaries on what will ensue the day after the Gaza
disengagement is over. We can separate the predictions into two categories,
depending on the political views of the writers. From the right there are
dire predictions of further forced Israeli withdrawals in the West Bank and
Jerusalem, that Gaza will become a center for terrorism and that rockets
will rain down on Israel from both Gaza and the West Bank. Then there are
those on the left who predict that Pres. Abbas of the PA, who has been very
cooperative with the Gaza disengagement, will finally take the bull by the
horns and clamp down on Hamas and the other terrorist groups, or will at
least persuade them to give up their armed struggle in order to facilitate
further Israeli concessions and/or agreements. A lot depends on what
happens in the next PA elections in January.
Israel will receive few compliments for its actions in Gaza, on the contrary
the wolves are already at the door, demanding more. Perhaps most ominously
US Secty of State Condoleeza Rice has announced that she considers it
essential that this disengagement not be "Gaza only", but should be followed
as soon as possible by further Israeli peace moves. She specifically
referred to the IDF removing its occupation of West Bank PA towns and
reducing the number of checkpoints to allow freer movement of Palestinians.
She did not say what the Palestinians themselves and their supporters in the
West have been saying, namely that what Israel did in Gaza was only the
first step. This attitude is based on the presumption that all Israeli
settlements in "Palestinian land" are "illegal." Not only is this not true,
but the land is not "Palestinian," although you can say this until you are
blue in the face, since the liberal press has indoctrinated the public that
it is. Nevertheless, there was never any previous Palestinian sovereignty
in these areas, and they are in fact "disputed territories" and simply
because the majority of the population in some parts is Palestinian Arab, it
does not make it ipso facto "their" territory. It can only become theirs if
Israel agrees to it as a result of negotiations under the Road Map
agreement.
But, even if we were to grant that the settlements were illegal, the fact
that Israel took the decision itself to disengage from Gaza is a historic
step, that should change the situation fundamentally.
Now the Palestinians want a lot more from Israel but without giving much in
return. They expect a safe-passage between Gaza and the West Bank (so that
Gaza does not become a "prison") and they expect further withdrawals of
settlers from areas of the West Bank, not to mention East Jerusalem. The
withdrawal from the four settlements in northern Samaria is a bad precedent
from that point of view. And these are the minimal demands of the PA, while
the terrorists flushed with bravado expect to drive Israel out of the West
Bank and out of existence. Since this is so, and since the terrorist groups
are now celebrating their victory, it is highly unlikely that the weak Pres.
Abbas will act firmly against them. Consequently Post-Gaza we can expect a
series of attacks by various forces on other fronts in Israel. Maybe the
rocket attack that occurred in Eilat today is a harbinger of things to come.
Simply because Israel has disengaged from Gaza does not mean that it will do
so from elsewhere. When you see the immense difficulty in evicting settlers
who have lived there for up to 38 years, it is understandable that other
larger settlement blocs would be impossible to withdraw from. Note also
that although the Gaza disengagement had a majority of Israeli support, a
lot of people seeing the scenes played out there, will have greater sympathy
for the settlers, and so this majority will be greatly reduced if any
Government proposes further withdrawals.
If Israel is to remain democratic, and I believe that the process has so far
been democratic, then there is little chance that the Israeli electorate
will support further large-scale disengagements. So there will be a
dichotomy in future expectations between Israelis and everyone else. The
enemies of Israel will argue that since the settlements are illegal in the
first place they should be evacuated, and they will downplay the
difficulties involved. This does not bode well for the future.
The Palestinians have never so far chosen the peaceful option, so there will
probably be another period of fighting before we ever get to a further West
Bank disengagement. The likelihood that Abbas will not be able to restrain
Hamas and the others, means that further attacks on Israel from Gaza and the
West Bank will give the Israeli Government reason to counter-attack in
force.
The bottom line is that its better that Jews are out of Gaza, and after
Israeli consolidation it will be seen that things have improved for Israel
despite what the Palestinians choose to do.