Let them stew

In the early hours of Monday, Israeli forces in Tulkarm cornered Louie
Sa'adi, the head of Islamic Jihad in the West Bank. He was responsible for
the deaths of at least 12 Israelis, including the attack on the Stage
nightclub in Tel Aviv a few months ago in which 5 died. There was a
firefight in which Sa'adi and another gunman were killed, and one IDF
soldier was wounded. Another 26 terrorists were also arrested.
Later on Monday, after IJ announced that it would revenge his killing with a
blow against Israel, about 20 rockets were fired on southern Israel. Most
of them actually fell in Gaza, but five of them fell on Sderot in the Negev.
Now the advance warning system worked, so that people had a minute or two's
notice to take cover, there were no casualties.
In response, the IAF attacked al Aksa and IJ sites in Gaza, wounding 5 and
destroying some facilities, and the IDF also bombarded the sites from which
the rockets were fired, although there were no terrorists there at the time.
I hope these empty gestures of shooting at empty buildings and fields do not
represent a return to previous Israeli gestures, since it does not impress
them. In order to do that they must have real losses, as in the case of the
killing of Sa'adi. All gates from/to Gaza have been closed and there was
also a closure of the West Bank during the Succot holiday that ends tonight.
There is a question regarding what Israel should do in response to the
situation in Syria/Lebanon and in Gaza. In both cases the best advice seems
to be to do nothing, but to let them stew in their own juices. In relation
to Syria the international community is gearing up to take action in the
Security Council of the UN in the wake of the Mehlis Report, which might
result in sanctions against Syria. Any action by Israel against Syria would
only complicate the issue. There is a question of whether or not a weaker
Syria is good for Israel, but certainly the current Ba'ath/Assad regime is
not in Israel's interests. Similarly with Lebanon, even though the current
situation in Lebanon is to Israel's benefit, taking any active role might
only provide Hizbullah with an excuse to take the focus away from Syria and
the Hariri assassination.
Also, in Gaza, Israel and the US face a dilemma. Neither want Hamas to be
involved in the January elections, but to intervene in order to prevent
their involvement would be messy, it would appear that they were trying to
"fix" the results. It will be best to let things evolve as they will, and
if Hamas is elected, then either it will moderate them as some think, or as
the cynics expect, it will only empower them. Israel will declare that it
cannot negotiate with a Government that includes terrorists committed to its
destruction, and the situation will become somewhat clearer. At present
no-one expects Pres. Abbas to take any action to enforce his will, so things
are stewing, so why not let them stew further. The results might be to our
taste.