Syria

Syria is a small country of 18 million people that is currently isolated in
the world, with only one ally, Iran. Even Iran is dissimilar, because Syria
is the only country governed by the secular Ba'ath Party while Iran is an
Islamist State governed by its religious hierarchy. However, the connection
between them is that both are controlled by heretical Muslim sects, Iran by
the Shia, and Syria by the Alawites. But, whereas in Iran the Shia are a
large majority (90%) of the population, in Syria the Alawites are only a
small minority (11%).
Just as Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq using his family clan from Tikrit, so
Hafez Assad, the former President, ran Syria for 30 years using his loyal
Alawite followers. On his father's death in 2000, Bashar Assad inherited
the Presidency with his entourage of entrenched Alawites who control all the
levers of power in Syria, the Party, the Army and the secret service. The
problem is that Syria is backward, isolated and economically stunted.
Its military has degenerated since it has not had the Soviet Union to depend
upon to replace its weapons and aircraft after each defeat by Israel. In
the last open clashes in 1982 Syria lost 80 aircraft to 1 for Israel. It
was said in Israel that the Syrian pilots were the bravest in the world,
because they knew that as soon as they took off that they were dead.
When Syria was forced by US and international pressure to give up its
occupation of Lebanon earlier this year, that was a definite defeat for the
regime. Now the Lebanese Government has just replaced both heads of
military and civilian intelligence agencies with anti-Syrian leaders. The
Syrian campaign to destroy the anti-Syrian forces in Lebanon severely
backfired when they assassinated Rafik Hariri. Now his son is in power and
the series of bombings in Christian neighborhoods has only served to
strengthen the opposition to Syria throughout Lebanon and the world.
Now Syria is in a bind, because it has earned the hostility of the most
powerful nation on earth, the USA. There are three reasons why, 1. Damascus
is the headquarters for many terrorist organizations, such as Hamas,
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, PFLP, etc. Pres. Assad promised Pres. Bush that
their offices would be shut down, but all they did was close their offices
and open new ones elsewhere. This week a ceasefire agreement was struck
between the PA and Hamas after the clashes in Gaza, where was it negotiated,
in Damascus; 2. The main route of infiltration of foreign (Arab) insurgents
into Iraq is thru Syria. On many occasions Syria has denied this role, but
the US knows well that this is the case, and currently the largest US-Iraqi
operation is taking place in Anbar province near the Syrian border,
recapturing towns that have been lost to the Syrian infiltrators. The
connection with al Qaeda is implicit, but unproven; 3. Syria was complicit
with Saddam Hussein in hiding some of his loyalists and some of his riches
and possibly also WMD. Although Syria has handed over some Saddam
supporters, it is thought that there are more living there and organizing
the insurgency against the US forces and the Iraqi Government.
Because of these activities the US has initiated UN sanctions against Syria,
that are just beginning to have their effect. But, the US has been
otherwise involved, with Iraq, Afghanistan and the small case of Katrina,
etc. These reasons have deflected the US away from direct intervention in
Syria. But, as the evidence of Syrian involvement in the insurrection in
Iraq has mounted, the time for a US reckoning with Assad is coming.
Recently a high Israeli official stated publicly that the US is seeking to
replace the Syrian dictatorship. He must know something.