Monday, December 05, 2005

Islamofascists in Iran

What are the Islamofascists in Iran preparing themselves for? Why are they
insisting upon their right to develop nuclear energy when they have large
amounts of oil? Why at the same time are they buying improved nuclear
capability from Russia and as announced today acquiring 20 missile batteries
ostensibly for defense? There is strong suspicion in Western capitals and
Israel that these moves are intended for the production of nuclear weapons
and offensive missiles. There is a strong suspicion that President
Ahmadinejad means what he says when he says that "Israel should be wiped off
the map," and then re-emphasizes this. We must assume, given what has
happened in the past that Iran under Amhedinejad is preparing for war.
There are various estimates of when the point-of-no-return will be reached
in Iran's program of developing offensive nuclear and missile capability.
Some experts put it at 5 years, and some at 6 months. Given that the
Western countries, particularly Britain, Germany and France, representing
the EU, have been unable in 5 years of trying to deflect Iran from this
course, it seems that the diplomatic niceties have been overtaken.
Russia, the fourth member of the Quartet that supposedly are working for
Middle East peace, including the US, UN and EU, has not played a
constructive role with Iran. They have consistently flouted US and EU
warnings and continued supplying Iran with nuclear and military technology.
There is no mystery why, it is because of the money. Today's missile
agreement was worth a billion dollars to Russia. That's why Russia (and
China) have been blocking attempts to bring the issue to the UN Security
Council in order to bring sanctions against Iran. Russia has said that it
will block any attempt to sanction Iran, on the grounds that all nations are
allowed to develop peaceful uses of nuclear energy. However, Iran has
rejected a compromise proposal by the Director of the IAEA, Mohammed
el Baradei (recent Nobel Peace Prize winner), that all enriched uranium be
processed in Russia for Iran, because that would mean Iran giving up its
ability to control the extent that it could enrich its uranium, that could
then be taken to weapons grade.
It is important that the UN react to this situation and not allow
Iran a free hand in all of this, because Iran is flouting the will of the
international community. But, it is even more important that Israel be
prepared to follow up the futile diplomatic attempts of the EU with a more
active program.
What form could this program take? Undoubtedly a surprise strike attack
on the most threatening sites where nuclear weapons grade uranium could
be and maybe is being produced. Also, on any missile sites that could be
used to strike at Israel or other Western interests. Most notable in this
respect is American and UK forces in nearby Iraq. The military danger to
US forces cannot be underestimated, you cannot have an Army of
155,000 US troops left undefended against such a massive threat. In that
respect the best solution would be a joint Israeli-American action, but of
course, that would result in massive anti-American demonstrations in the
Muslim and European world. So the US would be inclined to allow Israel to go
it alone. But, Israel does not have the capability to attack all the potential
targets that Iran has managed to distribute around its country. This is not
like Iraq in 1981 when a single Israeli raid could take out one large Osiris
reactor near Baghdad, that could bring the Iraqi nuclear program to a halt.
So there is a problem. How this will be overcome I do not know, but some
kind of American action should Iran not desist from the imminent development
of offensive nuclear missile capability is likely.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home