Civil war in Iraq?

The situation in Iraq is teetering on the edge of a civil war between Shia and
Sunni Muslims. Every day approximately 50 Shia are being killed in terrorist
incidents, the latest one in a mosque in Baghdad that killed 70 people and
wounded hundreds. It is reported that two of the three suicide bombers
managed to get into the guarded mosque by dressing as women (or maybe
they actually were women). Normally women are not checked when they
enter mosques. Since the holy mosque in Samara was destroyed last month
in a huge bombing, the odds are on a civil war in Iraq. Until now the Shia authorities have exercised significant restraint in response to Sunni
provocations, but they cannot hold back their Shia followers forever.
The likelihood of Shia retaliation against Sunnis is very high, and many such
attacks have already occurred, although the bulk of casualties have been Shia.
Since Shia are the majority (65%) in Iraq, they hoped to obtain control thru
the ballot box, hence the orderly election that took place four months ago.
But, so far no government has been formed, and this is because of the
inability of the parties to agree on a single candidate for Premier. The
current incumbent Ibrahim al-Jaafari is a liberal Shia, not sufficiently
religious (Islamist) for the majority of Shia, and not acceptable to the
bulk of Sunnis because he is a Shia.
The visit last week by US Secty of State Condy Rice and UK FM Jack
Straw to Baghdad had a note of desperation about it, as if they were pleading
with the parties to arrive at a compromise, or else all will be lost. If no
compromise candidate is accepted by all sides soon (a few weeks) and the
carnage continues, as it is likely to do (given that the insurgents see their
opportunity now), then the US and UK Coalition Forces will not be able
to stop the internecine conflict from spiraling out of control. The sectarian
militias, instead of shrinking as they should if a democratic Iraq were
developing, instead they are growing, and becoming more powerful at the
expense of the Iraqi security forces and Army.
If a civil war does occur, then Iraq will likely break up into three parts,
and the US will not be able to stop that. The consequences are severe.
First, the Turks may invade the Kurdish area in northern Iraq to prevent the
formation of an independent Kurdish State. Second, the Shia may call for
support from their allies in Iran, and if Iranian forces enter Iraq that might
be the signal for a full Sunni - Shia war. Who can tell what the consequence
of this might be. As an Israeli I don't object to them killing each other,
rather than their focus on killing us. But, the results could be massively
destabilizing for the whole Middle East. In readiness for a wide conflict it
is reported that Iran recently conferred with its allies, Syria, Hizbollah in
Lebanon, and Hamas in the PA.
At the same time comes the report that the Bush Administration is planning a
massive bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, to prevent them
from placing nuclear tipped bombs on their recently demonstrated long range
(4,500 km) missiles. A lame duck President like Bush could afford to take this
undesirable but maybe necessary action, when no re-electable President could.
But, at least they are planning options, just in case. Never a dull moment,
and let's hope we're still here when the smoke clears.