Just one day!
What a difference a day makes! So Hamas only blinked, which makes sense given that they are an extremist Islamist terrorist organization. Today their armed cadres were back on the streets wearing their all-black uniforms. And PA PM Ismail Haniyeh denied that they had agreed with Pres. Mahmoud Abbas to accept any conditions of the international community, to accept previous PA agreements, to stop terrorist violence and to recognize the State of Israel.
How had this remarkable turn-around happened? Well, either there was some quick thinking and pressure brought within Hamas to prevent the "pragmatists" making concessions, or it was all a dream thought up by Abbas. Nevertheless, on Friday the Hamas security force was withdrawn for a day, and Haniyeh did make conciliatory statements, so the former is likely to be the case. The foreign leaders of Hamas, particularly Mashaal in Syria, probably put their foot down, not to mention Iran that bankrolls Hamas.
Now the Hamas and Fatah security forces are facing off again all over the PA, ten militiamen have been killed in the past week of fighting, and it looks like it will continue. The "national reconciliation conference" called by Abbas has been postponed for a day, and may never meet again. Anything can happen, from a further compromise agreement to full civil war.
Bassam Eid, the well-known Palestinian human rights activist (who lives in Jerusalem, Israel, for safety) interviewed on IBA News, said he expected the fighting to escalate now, and suggested that peace keeping forces would be necessary to separate the two sides. He suggested that Egyptian forces be allowed to enter Gaza and Jordanian forces the West Bank. However, this is unlikely since neither Egypt nor Jordan wish to become embroiled in such a dangerous mission.
What will be the implications for Israel if there is a civil war? Some say that chaos in the PA will spill over into Israel due to the plethora of armed groups, and this will be bad. Others say "let them kill each other," we'll close our borders (once we have a complete security fence) and let them fight it out on the other side. But, if Hamas should win then we may be in deep trouble, although it would certainly clarify the situation. The problem will be if Iran or Hizbollah try to come to the aid of Hamas. What then? The permutations and combinations are too complex to contemplate, but if Abbas/Fatah win the Arabs may be united around the "Arab plan," and that may not be too comfortable for Israel either. Its a no-win situation.
Meanwhile, more Kassam rockets landed in Israel, although there were no casualties. In Gaza, three youths were killed in an explosion that the Palestinians attributed to the IDF, but the IDF said that it had not fired in that area, and the youths were probably playing with a shell that went off.
In Sidon, Lebanon, the Islamic Jihad terrorist leader for South Lebanon, Mahmoud Majzoub and his brother, Nidal, were killed when a parked silver Mercedes car blew up when they passed it. Of course, IJ blamed Israel, but Israel denied responsibility, which is believable since they rarely if ever use car bombs, its a signature of the terrorist organizations, probably a settling of accounts.
_______________
HU have changed their e-mail system, so this is the first one from the new system. Let me know if there are any problems (my new address is jackc@ekmd.huji.ac.il, but the old address still works so no need to change it). If you don't receive this e-mail, let me know (only joking!)
How had this remarkable turn-around happened? Well, either there was some quick thinking and pressure brought within Hamas to prevent the "pragmatists" making concessions, or it was all a dream thought up by Abbas. Nevertheless, on Friday the Hamas security force was withdrawn for a day, and Haniyeh did make conciliatory statements, so the former is likely to be the case. The foreign leaders of Hamas, particularly Mashaal in Syria, probably put their foot down, not to mention Iran that bankrolls Hamas.
Now the Hamas and Fatah security forces are facing off again all over the PA, ten militiamen have been killed in the past week of fighting, and it looks like it will continue. The "national reconciliation conference" called by Abbas has been postponed for a day, and may never meet again. Anything can happen, from a further compromise agreement to full civil war.
Bassam Eid, the well-known Palestinian human rights activist (who lives in Jerusalem, Israel, for safety) interviewed on IBA News, said he expected the fighting to escalate now, and suggested that peace keeping forces would be necessary to separate the two sides. He suggested that Egyptian forces be allowed to enter Gaza and Jordanian forces the West Bank. However, this is unlikely since neither Egypt nor Jordan wish to become embroiled in such a dangerous mission.
What will be the implications for Israel if there is a civil war? Some say that chaos in the PA will spill over into Israel due to the plethora of armed groups, and this will be bad. Others say "let them kill each other," we'll close our borders (once we have a complete security fence) and let them fight it out on the other side. But, if Hamas should win then we may be in deep trouble, although it would certainly clarify the situation. The problem will be if Iran or Hizbollah try to come to the aid of Hamas. What then? The permutations and combinations are too complex to contemplate, but if Abbas/Fatah win the Arabs may be united around the "Arab plan," and that may not be too comfortable for Israel either. Its a no-win situation.
Meanwhile, more Kassam rockets landed in Israel, although there were no casualties. In Gaza, three youths were killed in an explosion that the Palestinians attributed to the IDF, but the IDF said that it had not fired in that area, and the youths were probably playing with a shell that went off.
In Sidon, Lebanon, the Islamic Jihad terrorist leader for South Lebanon, Mahmoud Majzoub and his brother, Nidal, were killed when a parked silver Mercedes car blew up when they passed it. Of course, IJ blamed Israel, but Israel denied responsibility, which is believable since they rarely if ever use car bombs, its a signature of the terrorist organizations, probably a settling of accounts.
_______________
HU have changed their e-mail system, so this is the first one from the new system. Let me know if there are any problems (my new address is jackc@ekmd.huji.ac.il, but the old address still works so no need to change it). If you don't receive this e-mail, let me know (only joking!)
posted by Jack Cohen at 6:08 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home