Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Olmert in Egypt

The visit of PM Olmert to Egypt marks a significant improvement in relations between the two countries. This is not because Olmert and Mubarak like each other, but because the interests of Egypt and Israel coincide in one important respect, they both share a common enemy.
In Egypt, Mubarak's main enemy is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the force of Islamism that seeks to undermine Egypt and overthrow him. Their means of undermining Egypt is simple, since Egypt depends largely on tourism, every now and then they blow up a hotel or two and kill some tourists. That frightens others off, and they accomplish their goal. The last set of explosions in Sinai was reportedly carried out by local Beduin, but they were supposedly trained by operatives from Gaza. Therein lies the link.
In Israel, the main enemy now is Hamas, that is in charge of the PA and is in the process of building a terrorist mini-state. This mini-state would be a terrible threat to Israel, but also to Egypt. So that is where both countries perforce have a common enemy and a common interest. They must prevent Hamas from achieving its goal, and for Egypt this must be done without seeming to abandon the Palestinian cause. That is why Mubarak made a point of emphasisizing that he wants Olmert to seriously negotiate with Pres Abbas of the PA.
Now both leaders, as well as Pres. Bush, know very well that Abbas has no real power in the PA, and he cannot stop Hamas short of dismissing their duly-elected Government, which he has threatened to do if they don't toe his line of accepting previous PA commitments, recognising Israel and giving up terrorism. This they are never going to accept, so such a move would almost certainly lead to a civil war, which none of them wants.
So the cat and mouse game between Hamas and Fatah will continue and the illusion of negotiations between Olmert and Abbas will be pursued by Israel, in order to satisfy Egyptian and American needs. Since they can lead nowhere, at some point Olmert will be forced to choose, either continue the futile diplomatic dance, or switch to his unilateral realignment program. We are a few years yet from that juncture, but we are currently entering the diplomatic dance period, and if you listen carefully you can hear the music swell as Olmert and Abbas approach each other across the crowded ballroom.

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