Friday, July 14, 2006

Mumbai bombings

We should not be surprised that an extremist Islamic terrorist group struck at the rail infrastructure of Mumbai (Bombay) this week. First, the Muslims have a long-standing conflict with India over Kashmir (see below), second there have been many Islamic terrorist attacks in India, the worst being in 2001 when they attacked the Parliament building in New Delhi killing 18, and in 1993 a series of bombs in Mumbai killed over 250 people. Third the rail system is a "soft" target, in that it lacks any real security and is so overcrowded and any bomb would be sure to kill many people. The toll this time was 190 killed and 700 injured.
The suspected terrorist organization is Lakshar-e-Taiba that is active in Kashmir. However, a spokesman for LeT denied responsibility, calling the attacks "outrageous", and the Pakistan FM issued a statement calling the bombings "despicable acts of terrorism." The fact that there were 8 almost simultaneous bombings (one that did not go off) shows a degree of sophistication that we have come to associate with al Qaeda, but there is no basis for attributing the bombings to them as yet. But, it is a familiar pattern, after bombings in the London and Madrid rail networks. There was also a recent plot against the rail system between New Jersey and New York that was apparently prevented in its early stages by arrests in several countries, including Pakistan.
It must be remembered that India has in fact the third largest Muslim population in the world. After the exchange of populations with Pakistan, the Muslim population of India was still very large and is now ca. m120 people. Pakistan has ca. m150, and Indonesia is the largest at m180. It is not difficult to find a small number of dedicated terrorists in the Muslim population of India as well as Kashmir and Pakistan (although Pakistan claims that it now prevents infiltration into India).
Kashmir is perhaps the largest and most potentially dangerous territorial dispute in the world, since both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons.
The dispute came about because the British in 1947 left it up to the hereditary ruler in each state to choose which of the two countries he wanted to join, India or Pakistan. Although Kashmir is predominantly Muslim (90%), the Hindu Maharajah of Kashmir chose India. The Pakistan army invaded Kashmir in order to prevent it joining India. This lead to a war between Pakistan and India and they ended up with ca. one third and two-thirds of Kashmir territory respectively, divided by the so-called "line of control." There have been two further wars between them over Kashmir since then.
Even though relations between Pakistan under Pres. Musharraf and India have improved significantly in recent years, there is no doubt that one of the main aims of the Islamist extremists is to defeat India and force it to relinquish Kashmir. This India will never do, since for all Hindus (and many Muslims) Kashmir is an integral part of India and in addition India has a far larger and more effective military. However, the terrorists hope by creating friction between them to cause Inida and Pakistan to go to war again. This would be disastrous! The main hope is that Pakistan under Musharraf will be sufficiently anti-terrorist that these terrible acts will not exacerbate the situation between India and Pakistan.
I have always felt that India and Israel are natural allies, in that both have irredentist Muslim enemies. However, the so-called "third world" leadership that India strove for under the Congress Party leadership of Nehru (which was a way of preventing Muslim opposition to India) prevented that. Now that India and Israel have diplomatic relations and have openly expressed their common policies as two democracies under Islamic terrorist attack, there is some hope for increased cooperation.

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