Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Negotiations with Hamas?

In his speech on Monday to the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, PM Olmert stated that he was "sure" that the Palestinian people also wanted peace and a cessation of violence. But, he is wrong about this! In an article entitled "Palestinian suicide strategy," in Tuesday's J'sam Post, Barry Rubin, a well-known academic expert on the Middle East, argues that the Palestinian strategy is opposite to that believed by most Western commentators, academics, journalists and politicians. They believe that Palestinians want a cessation of violence, a two-state solution and an end to terrorism and hostage-taking, just as they do. However, this is belied by the opinions of the Palestinian people themselves. Having elected the only actual terrorist government in the world, one could hardly be surprised when this turns around and attacks Israel and takes an Israeli soldier hostage, something that they have been trying to do for years. A recent poll conducted in the PA found that over 70% of Palestinians support the taking of Israeli hostages and support the exchange of Cpl. Shalit for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Pres. Abbas, a well-known Palestinian "moderate" leader of Fatah, has called upon Israel to negotiate for the release of Cpl. Shalit, and PA spokesman Saeb Erakat has also echoed these views. Hamas PA PM Ismail Haniyeh has said that Israel must negotiate for the release of Shalit, and that he will be treated as a POW until then. Tuesday for the first time Khaled Mashaal, extremist leader of Hamas in Syria, spoke out on the issue and has told PM Olmert that he must negotiate for the release of Shalit and release Palestinian prisoners, and that the Palestinian people fully support this.
All of these different Palestinian leaders, each with a different political position, are reading from the same script, how strange. It must have somehow happened. Of course, many in the West will be taken in by this screed, and will say to PM Olmert, why not negotiate with them? But, this would be irresponsible, and Olmert is right to resist this. First, any negotiation would give credibility to the terrorist organization and second it would sanction their taking of hostages to attain political advantage. For example, suppose terrorists in Iraq take some Coalition soldiers hostage, would the US or British Governments negotiate with them? Also, such a move would justify their taking hostages in future as a matter of policy.
Now some will say that if Mashaal says that he is prepared to negotiate with Israel for the release of Shalit, this represents a "softening" of the Hamas position. But, on the contrary, this is an illusion. It only means that Hamas are trying to weaken the Israeli Government position and make it vulnerable to hostage pressure. It could be argued on the contrary, that IDF military pressure in Gaza is having a salutory effect on the status of Shalit and on the resistance of Hamas. Even if Security Minister Avi Dichter made a mis-statement when he said the other day that Israel knows how to release Palestinian prisoners, which may have been a test balloon, that does not mean that any specific deal is possible. The only and irrevocable deal is that Hamas release Shalit, and then the IDF will cease action in south Gaza, and that the rocket barrage on Israel cease and the IDF incursions in northern Gaza will stop. After that, if there is peace and quiet Israel may then release Palestinian prisoners as a goodwill gesture.
So while I submit that PM Olmert is factually incorrect in saying that the Palestinian people do not support the use of violence and the taking of hostages, he is right to strongly resist any attempt to pressure him to take the illusory step of actually negotiating with the terrorists who have illegally taken an Israeli soldier hostage.

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