Israel for Iran?
Whenever the US gets itself into a corner and can't find a way out, one way always comes up. To make friends and obtain quid pro quo the US usually tries to deliver Israel. That is what is behind the deal that the Bush Administration has apparently made with the Quartet (US, UN, EU & Russia) at the UN yesterday, in order to gain the support of these nations for its Iranian policy. This is not to say that Israel does not support the US Iranian policy, nor is Israel in principle against talking to Abbas, which is what FM Tzipi Livni did at the UN and what Olmert will do soon in the region. But, the US dropped one of its most consistent policies, namely not to deal with Hamas, an unregenerate Islamist terrorist organization.
Now, does it make much sense to agree to accept Hamas in a Unity Palestinian Government, when Hamas is supported by Iran, and at the same time use this to get support from other nations against Iran? What the US is saying is that since they no longer oppose Hamas in a Unity PA Government, Israel should do so too. But, Israel will not do so.
Fortunately, this may be an academic point since: 1. Both the US and the Quartet as well as Israel will still apply the three conditions for working with any PA Govt., namely that it recognize Israel's right to exist, stop terrorism and accept all previous PA agreements. It is highly unlikely verging on the impossible that Hamas in any shape or form would accept this, particularly since their sponsor Iran would not agree to this. But, Abbas has announced that they will. 2. On the ground there are ongoing violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah. A few days ago PM Haniyeh's way to his office was blocked by striking Fatah workers and his bodyguards literally had to fight their way in, including shooting their guns. A few days ago a General, deputy intelligence chief to Abbas, was gunned down in his car. Such incidents are going on all the time, and have nothing directly to do with Israel. They represent the fundamental differences between the secular and nationalist Fatah and the Islamist Hamas. Can they ever forge a Unity Govt.? Probably not!
One interesting sidelight to this situation is a that a few days ago an aide to Secty. of State Condy Rice gave a speech in which he pointed out that with the US mired in Iraq, and with anti-American feeling bubbling up in the whole Arab/Muslim world, and with the EU opposing many US policies, and now that Israel's image has been tarnished from the outcome of the Second Lebanon War (even though this is largely media manipulation), the US, in order to placate its friends and seduce its enemies, has only one card to play, namely delivering Israel. When Israel protested this speech, Rice immediately denied that there was any intention of changing US policy, but of course that was a lie. It's a game that has been played many times before, and it usually fails, not least because of Congressional support for Israel and because the Arabs usually shoot themselves in the foot one way or another.
It remains to be seen if this version of "delivering" Israel, in this case in exchange for support for its Iranian policy, will be successful for the US.
Now, does it make much sense to agree to accept Hamas in a Unity Palestinian Government, when Hamas is supported by Iran, and at the same time use this to get support from other nations against Iran? What the US is saying is that since they no longer oppose Hamas in a Unity PA Government, Israel should do so too. But, Israel will not do so.
Fortunately, this may be an academic point since: 1. Both the US and the Quartet as well as Israel will still apply the three conditions for working with any PA Govt., namely that it recognize Israel's right to exist, stop terrorism and accept all previous PA agreements. It is highly unlikely verging on the impossible that Hamas in any shape or form would accept this, particularly since their sponsor Iran would not agree to this. But, Abbas has announced that they will. 2. On the ground there are ongoing violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah. A few days ago PM Haniyeh's way to his office was blocked by striking Fatah workers and his bodyguards literally had to fight their way in, including shooting their guns. A few days ago a General, deputy intelligence chief to Abbas, was gunned down in his car. Such incidents are going on all the time, and have nothing directly to do with Israel. They represent the fundamental differences between the secular and nationalist Fatah and the Islamist Hamas. Can they ever forge a Unity Govt.? Probably not!
One interesting sidelight to this situation is a that a few days ago an aide to Secty. of State Condy Rice gave a speech in which he pointed out that with the US mired in Iraq, and with anti-American feeling bubbling up in the whole Arab/Muslim world, and with the EU opposing many US policies, and now that Israel's image has been tarnished from the outcome of the Second Lebanon War (even though this is largely media manipulation), the US, in order to placate its friends and seduce its enemies, has only one card to play, namely delivering Israel. When Israel protested this speech, Rice immediately denied that there was any intention of changing US policy, but of course that was a lie. It's a game that has been played many times before, and it usually fails, not least because of Congressional support for Israel and because the Arabs usually shoot themselves in the foot one way or another.
It remains to be seen if this version of "delivering" Israel, in this case in exchange for support for its Iranian policy, will be successful for the US.
posted by Jack Cohen at 6:46 PM
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