Thursday, November 16, 2006

Gaza and Lebanon

A 56-year old woman, Fatima Slutsker, was killed and a bodyguard to Defense Minister Peretz (who lives in Sderot) lost both his legs yesterday from one of 8 rockets that fell on the Negev town of Sderot. Another 5 rockets fell in the vicinity of Ashkelon, injuring a 17 year old boy. Ironically, Fatima Slutsker was a Muslim who made aliyah with her Jewish husband from the Caucasus region of Russia 3 years ago. Hamas and Islamic Jihad announced responsibility for these rocket attacks, in revenge for the accidental killing of civilians in Beit Hanun by the IDF.
As usual we have to wait for someone to die before the authorities take serious action. In the previous operations in Gaza the IDF said that we cannot expect them to stop all rockets being fired into Israel. Why not? Its true that the rocket launchers are mobile, but by taking enough ground the launchers could be moved away from the border, and by mounting large scale operations the launchers could be destroyed. This is what must be done. Southern Israel cannot live under this kind of constant bombardment.
The house of Min. Peretz has been reinforced to survive rocket attack, but only a few of the schools, kindergartens and other meeting places in Sderot have been protected, and it is only a matter of time before a tragedy happens. While the tragedy in Beit Hanun of 18 civiliains being killed was apologized for by our Government, there would have been no apology from the Palestinians for such an incident on our side, they would celebrate and rejoice, such is the difference between us.
In Lebanon, the report from Avi Dichter the security head, is that Hizbollah has recouped its previous armaments, and has now reintroduced the same number of fighters into South Lebanon as they had before the recent war. The presence of the new UNIFIL force has proved no impediment to them. So that PM Olmert's statement that they will never recover their former position is untrue. They have done so already, and they are rebuilding their underground bunkers with Iranian financial support. At the same time Sheikh Nasrullah is challenging the anti-Syrian Lebanese Government by withdrawing all Shia Cabinet members and threatening a repeat of the disastrous civil war that convulsed Lebanon for 15 years. In order to save democracy in Lebanon the forces of reason have to stand up to Nasrullah, but will they? He is capitalizing on his position as the "savior" of Lebanon from Israeli "aggression" and making a play for increased power in Lebanon itself, not just in the Shia south. Maybe he has bit off more than he can chew, but maybe he will be proved right, that the anti-Syrian opposition is all talk and no teeth. If they back down in face of his challenge it will be bad days ahead for Lebanon and for Israel, and a victory for Syria and Iran.
PM Olmert's trip to the US and his address to the GA in Los Angeles have passed without particular surprise. The main topic was Iran and what is going to be done about it. For all the breast beating of Olmert, the international community is passive, and the US is mired in Iraq. We await further developments. There is some breathing time before Iran goes nuclear, 1-2 years, but not much more.

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