Thursday, December 14, 2006

Constructive ambiguity

There has been a lot of comment about PM Olmert's statement in Germany that implied that Israel has atomic weapons. I for one am not unhappy about this. It's true that it appears to breach the traditional policy of ambiguity that has been Israeli Govt. policy since the 1960s. Israel has always said that it will not be the first country to "introduce" atomic weapons into the Middle East. But, in fact, almost everyone believes that Israel does have the bomb, and would use it if it were faced with a survival situation. However, believing and knowing are two different things, and Israel's policy so far has been a hedge against its Arab/Islamic enemies getting the bomb too. Now that Iran is clearly on the path to getting nuclear enrichment leading to a bomb, it is appropriate for Israel to in effect remind them, particularly as they hold an anti-Holocaust conference, that Israel is by no means defenceless.
So was Olmert's statement to a German TV program an off-the cuff remark that was mistaken and misinterpreted or was it a deliberate gaffe in order to let everyone know where we all stand? I think the former, but it has the effect of the latter. In any case, it really shouldn't make any difference, because Iran is supposed, according to its own leaders, to be developing nuclear capability for purely peaceful purposes. So why then should it consider it necessary to switch to a weapons program, if it hasn't done so already, just because of Olmert's remark. The Israeli nuclear capability is not a threat to any other country, and is not deployed. As Olmert said, that is the crucial difference, Israel threatens no country while Iran threatens to "wipe Israel of the map," specifically, repeatedly and publicly.
Seen in this light, Mordecahi Vanunu's revelations about Israel's nuclear research had a salutary effect in that it let everyone know that Israel does indeed have the capability to deploy nuclear weapons. I wouldn't call Vanunu a patriot, but I see no harm in our enemies knowing that although they want to destroy us, doing so may result in their mutual destruction as well.
Now the secondary effect of the Iranian push for nuclear technology has transpired. A coalition of the Sunni Arab countries, The Gulf Cooperation Council consisting of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, etc. have announced that they intend to start a program to examine the development of a nuclear capability for peaceful purposes. Such is the nature of proliferation. However, while this is a dangerous development it is directed against the Iranian threat rather than that of Israel, although they might use the Olmert revelation as an excuse.

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