Condy's visit

Secty. of State Condoleeza Rice is now visiting the Middle East, mainly to sell Pres. Bush's "new" policy on Iraq. While this policy is not so new, and is in fact more of the old policy that has been rejected by a majority of Americans, nevertheless Rice has been sent to try to keep the US allies in line.
Her focus on Iraq definitely distracts from the supposedly "core" issue of the Palestine-Israel conflict, that is not such a core issue after all. In both the PA and Israel the Governments are weak. Pres. Abbas is involved in a civil war with Hamas. How do we know he means business, given his customary vacillations? Because he has appointed Mohammed Dahlan as Head of his Security Forces. Dahlan is a former head of security under Arafat, who had a falling out with Arafat, and was dismissed. He is known to be a "strong man" and has great loyalty from the Fatah-controlled security forces in Gaza. He is likely to precipitate a show-down with Hamas and will hopefully out-maneuver them. Nevertheless, Hamas has doubled the size of their forces and represent a significant threat to Abbas/Dahlan. But, there can be no progress on any so-called "peace process" while the PA is involved in a civil war. Latest reports are that Abbas is engaged in negotiations with Khaled Mashaal, Head of Hamas in Syria, to form a Unity Government.
Similarly in Israel, PM Olmert is down to a new low of only ca. 22% support. If an election were to be held today Kadima would win only 12 seats and Likud would get 29, so Netanyahu would be our PM. Under these circumstances, Olmert is in no position to make any significant decisions. While his coalition is stable for now, it cannot last very long, especially since the Winograd Commission of enquiry into the Lebanon War is due to issue its report soon, and it has given warnings to Olmert, Peretz and Halutz that they might be named for offences in the report. The US does not want to take any chance of making a deal with Olmert that could soon collapse. Also, any change in the Israel-Palestine front will make no difference to the crucial situation in Iraq!
Rice's main problem is keeping the Sunni partners on board, since Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are unhappy with the moves of the US in Iraq to support a "democratic" Government that is essentially Shia dominated. As Sharon warned Bush, democracy is hardly skin deep in the Arab world. Where the US sees a democratically elected Government in Iraq, the Sunni states see a Shia-controlled Government that is closer to and more dependent on Iran. Unless the Iraqi Government of PM Maliki cracks down on the Shia militias, such as the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al Sadr, as well as the Sunni insurgents, the Sunni allies will become increasingly nervous and may part company with the US on Iraq.
So Condy is here to try to reassure the Sunni allies that Iraq will represent no threat to them. But, she cannot really do that since the sectarian split in Iraq is becoming ever deeper, and the likelihood of a crack in the unity of the Iraqi state is becoming ever more likely. Then the question will be whether or not a federal Iraqi state can be saved from the mess or whether a coalition of the Iraqi Shia with Iran will line up against the coalition of the Iraqi Sunnis and the Sunni States. If that happens the whole world is in for a major clash over control of Islam, and the Israel-Palestine and the Lebanon disputes will fade into relative insignificance. Nevertheless Condy is trying to keep a lid on things.