Monday, January 01, 2007

2007?

2006 went out with a whimper, the execution of Saddam Hussein, and 2007 came in with a bang, the total defeat of the Islamic Court's Coalition by Ethiopian and Government forces in Somalia. Don't belittle this victory for the anti-Islamist coalition. Somalia very nearly became another hub of the Islamic extremists and it would have been just as dangerous as Afghanistan under the Taliban. We could have expected foreign Muslim forces to set up training camps there and to send out terrorists to attack us in our homelands. The intervention of the Ethiopian forces was a surprising and effective outcome. Rather than see this large country that has been in a state of chaos for 16 years become an Islamist state, the Ethiopian Army with Western acquiescence invaded and the Islamist forces melted before them. Hopefully the few hundred extremists who tried to escape to the south will be captured and/or killed. So chalk this one up to our side.
Whatever President Bush decides to do about Iraq in 2007, it seems inevitable that it will split one way or another along sectarian lines into Sunni and Shia cantons. The Sunni are now scared, if the Shia-controlled Government can execute Saddam and effectively take over Iraq, then they will want out, they won't accept to be dominated by the Shia. In the longer run, this might lead to a Sunni-Shia war, in which Iran supports the Iraqi Arab Shia and the Sunni States, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the PA support the Iraqi Sunnis. It is amazing how the Sunnis can make such a fuss about a few hundred Palestinians inadvertently killed by the IDF, but overlook about 200,000 Iraqi Muslims killed by Saddam (well most of them were Kurds and Shia). If this schism gets going, then it would confuse Hamas, since the Palestinians were the most fervent supporters of Saddam Hussein, and Hamas would find it difficult to stay in alliance with Iran on the Shia side in such a conflict. In 2007, this is my wish, to see the Hamas tied up in knots like this, not knowing whether to support Iran or switch sides, and maybe it would exacerbate the internal Palestinian conflict.
The big question in 2007 is whether or not Iran will succeed in developing effective nuclear weapons or if the UN sanctions will start of work. Although this is not expected to happen, it is quite likely that after the losses in the local elections, Ahmedinejad will further lose popular support. We must get across to the young Iranians who oppose the clerical regime that if they don't do something then they will be committing suicide, because if Iran does develop an atomic weapon, Israel and the US will not stand by and let it happen. So they will find themselves in a war, which is completely avoidable if they stop this madness. Let's hope this message gets across in 2007.
Finally, the worst event for Israel in 2006 was the Lebanon war with Hizbollah, and finding that our leadership, perhaps for the first time, was incompetent. It was disillusioning to find that PM Olmert, Defense Minister Peretz and Chief of Staff Halutz were not up to the job. All the 50 internal IDF enquiries into the faults of the war have exposed many mistakes, but noone has been officially blamed. The Vinograd Government Commission is expected to report back early in 2007, and maybe then heads will roll. Let responsibility be taken for past errors that cost lives, and lets hope that if there has to be another war in Lebanon or elsewhere, that the same mistakes won't be repeated.
Have a Happy and Peaceful Year!

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