Thursday, December 28, 2006

Ethiopia and Somalia

In writing this "journal" I have written about some exotic and strange places. None more than Ethiopia, the Government of which announced yesterday that it has invaded its neighbor Somalia. There is a very important distinction between these two countries, Ethiopia is predominantly Christian and Somalia is Muslim. Until a few months ago Somalia was considered to be a "failed state" a basket case of a country that has been mired in internal strife since the downfall of the last dictatorial Government about 15 years ago.
Even an attempt by the US to bring some order to the capital Mogadishu in the 90's resulted in disaster when a US helicopter was downed in a district controlled by a warlord and an attempt by a marine patrol to rescue the surviviors lead to the loss of several marines (this was dramatized in the movie "Blackhawk down"). Altogether it was a brave but doomed attempt at rescuing both Americans and Somalia, and the US rapidly retreated.
More recently there were talks to resolve the civil war, the development of a civil administration constituting a recognized national Governent and then a disturbing development, the coalescing of several Islamic movements into one, called the Council of Islamic Courts, the intention of which is to bring strict Islamic law to the country. They have been fighting the recognized Government of Somalia, that never really controlled the country or Mogadishu, and the Islamic Court's militias have control about 2/3 of Somalia, including Mogadishu, while the Government is ensconced in the secondary town of Baidoa. In the towns that have been captured by the Courts the imposition of strict Sharia law means that anyone who is not a Muslim is in danger of being killed and Muslims have to obey all Muslim laws, including praying 5 times a day, or they will be executed. The leader of the Court's Union is Shiekh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (one man) who admitted today that his forces are in retreat, and in fact have given up half the country in the face of the Ethiopian invasion. At first, Ethiopia denied its forces were operating in Somalia, but now it has become obvious.
There is a strong regional antagonism between Ethiopia and Somalia, mainly because of the religious divide. Ethiopia has its own ancient form of Christianity, that was present in the area long before the rise of Islam. Ethiopia now finds itself surrounded by Islamic countries, Eritrea to the north (that was once part of Ethiopia), Sudan to the west, and Somalia to the north and east. One of Eritrea's main reasons for invading is that it fears the development of an Islamist regime in Somalia, that would be a definite threat to its existence.
The weak Somali Government has welcomed the Ethiopian forces as liberators, and surprisingly the African Union, the local governments in the region, including Kenya, and even the EU as well as the US have welcomed the Ethiopian invasion. They all see the Islamic Courts as a Taliban-type movement that could spell trouble for all if they defeat the Government forces and establish an Islamist regime in Somalia. The US realizes that it is far better that Ethiopia, a pro-Western local power, handles the situation rather than having to send its forces in again. Ethiopian PM Zenawi told the media that his forces will not invade Mogadishu, that could lead to heavy fighting, instead they will defeat the Muslim Court's forces in the country and then surround Mogadishu, leaving the Government to deal with the Courts from a position of strength.
Noone knows where this invasion could lead, but at least it will prevent the consolidation of an Islamist Government in another country that has ties with al Qaeda, and that has called upon foreign Islamic fighters to come and defend it. At present the Islamic Court's militias are in full retreat.

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