Secret meetings
On Tuesday last week PM Olmert flew to Amman to meet King Abdullah II of Jordan in an unannounced and supposedly secret meeting, that was immediately leaked to the press. What did they talk about for 2 hours? The announcement said that they discussed any possible spillover of the violent confrontations ("civil war") in the PA to Jordan, that has a large (ca. 65%) Palestinian population that is split between support for Fatah and Hamas. King Abdullah knows that his Hashemite (Beduin) regime is very susceptible to any outbreak of Palestinian violence that could undermine or even topple his monarchy. So no doubt he sought Israeli support in case such an outbreak of violence threatens his Kingdom.
But, equally likely was a discussion of the situation vis-a-vis Syria. King Abdullah probably also asked Olmert for assurances that he is not going to do a deal with Syria that would cede the Golan Heights to Assad, as suggested stupidly in the Baker Report. At present relations between the US and Syria are at a low, mainly because Syria is at least allowing, if not organizing, the flow of terrorists thru Damascus into Iraq to fight the US forces. As a result of this the US has no intention of making any deal with Syria and certainly does not want Israel to do so, especially if it strengthens the Assad regime in any way. Also, as far as Israel is concerned Assad bears heavy responsibility for harboring terrorist groups, such as Hamas in Damascus, from where Khaled Mashaal is manipulating events in Gaza, as well as the Hizbollah-Syria connection, thru which Assad played a major role in precipitating the recent Lebanon War.
Note that Syria has never recognized the existence of the sovereign states of Lebanon and Jordan, as well as Israel, regarding them all as part of Greater Syria, taken away from them by the Western colonialist regimes (of course Syria does recognize its own imperial ambitions in these claims). At least once before in 1983, in the wake of the first Lebanon War, when Syria threatened to invade Jordan, the US sanctioned Israel to threaten to attack Syrian forces if they entered Jordan, and this caused the Syrians to back down, thus saving the Hashemite regime. So Abdullah knows that his future is intricately linked to Israeli support, and Israel would prefer to have a stable Hashemite monarchy to its East than any Syrian or Palestinian regime.
I have often wondered it the slogan "Jordan is Arab Palestine" that used to be popular with the Israeli right wing, if it ever came about, whether or not the infighting over control of Jordan might not keep the Palestinians busy for a generation or more. But, that's a different story, only relevant if the Hashemite regime falls to a Palestinian insurrection, not impossible but currently unlikely.
So while the Jordanian monarch waxes lyrical in his current visit to Japan about the need for peace in the Palestinian territories and between the PA and Israel, he is really worrying about his own hide and that of his regime. Will the Palestinians ever feel stong enough to overthrow him and will the Syrians ever feel strong enough to invade?
Now this coming week it is reported that Olmert will finally meet with Pres. Abbas of the PA, after more than six months that this meeting has been batted around. What will they talk about? No doubt Abbas will ask for Olmert's assurances that if Hamas seems to be getting the upper hand in the confrontation with Fatah, that Israel will step in and save him/them. After all, Fatah in principle seemed once to accept Israel's right to exist, while Hamas totally and repeatedly rejects that. Also, Abbas is regarded as a moderate, opposing the use of suicide bombings against Israelis, although the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades that have carried out a large proportion of these attacks is nominally under his control. It seems that he is a true successor of Arafat, asking for Western help, publicly (in English) opposing terrorism, but secretly sanctioning it. Nevertheless, some might argue that Israel can gain by forging a link with a Palestinian leader.
After the first intifada, when Arafat was still in exile in Tunisia, the sentiment was that no Palestinian leadership "chosen" or supported by Israel had any chance of success. That was why PM Rabin brought Arafat back from exile, expecting him to be grateful and do the dirty work and take care of Hamas. Well, it didn't work out that way, and maybe Abbas won't either, but at least Olmert has to be seen to be trying. On the other hand it will probably be better if Israel does not interfere in internal Palestinian power struggles, that are likely to be messy and bloody, and rather take a detached position, waiting for the dust to settle. Only then can Israel decide what to do, and a re-invasion of Gaza is not out of the question if Hamas wins, now that we know that Hamas terrorists are in Iran being trained by the revolutionary guards.
But, equally likely was a discussion of the situation vis-a-vis Syria. King Abdullah probably also asked Olmert for assurances that he is not going to do a deal with Syria that would cede the Golan Heights to Assad, as suggested stupidly in the Baker Report. At present relations between the US and Syria are at a low, mainly because Syria is at least allowing, if not organizing, the flow of terrorists thru Damascus into Iraq to fight the US forces. As a result of this the US has no intention of making any deal with Syria and certainly does not want Israel to do so, especially if it strengthens the Assad regime in any way. Also, as far as Israel is concerned Assad bears heavy responsibility for harboring terrorist groups, such as Hamas in Damascus, from where Khaled Mashaal is manipulating events in Gaza, as well as the Hizbollah-Syria connection, thru which Assad played a major role in precipitating the recent Lebanon War.
Note that Syria has never recognized the existence of the sovereign states of Lebanon and Jordan, as well as Israel, regarding them all as part of Greater Syria, taken away from them by the Western colonialist regimes (of course Syria does recognize its own imperial ambitions in these claims). At least once before in 1983, in the wake of the first Lebanon War, when Syria threatened to invade Jordan, the US sanctioned Israel to threaten to attack Syrian forces if they entered Jordan, and this caused the Syrians to back down, thus saving the Hashemite regime. So Abdullah knows that his future is intricately linked to Israeli support, and Israel would prefer to have a stable Hashemite monarchy to its East than any Syrian or Palestinian regime.
I have often wondered it the slogan "Jordan is Arab Palestine" that used to be popular with the Israeli right wing, if it ever came about, whether or not the infighting over control of Jordan might not keep the Palestinians busy for a generation or more. But, that's a different story, only relevant if the Hashemite regime falls to a Palestinian insurrection, not impossible but currently unlikely.
So while the Jordanian monarch waxes lyrical in his current visit to Japan about the need for peace in the Palestinian territories and between the PA and Israel, he is really worrying about his own hide and that of his regime. Will the Palestinians ever feel stong enough to overthrow him and will the Syrians ever feel strong enough to invade?
Now this coming week it is reported that Olmert will finally meet with Pres. Abbas of the PA, after more than six months that this meeting has been batted around. What will they talk about? No doubt Abbas will ask for Olmert's assurances that if Hamas seems to be getting the upper hand in the confrontation with Fatah, that Israel will step in and save him/them. After all, Fatah in principle seemed once to accept Israel's right to exist, while Hamas totally and repeatedly rejects that. Also, Abbas is regarded as a moderate, opposing the use of suicide bombings against Israelis, although the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades that have carried out a large proportion of these attacks is nominally under his control. It seems that he is a true successor of Arafat, asking for Western help, publicly (in English) opposing terrorism, but secretly sanctioning it. Nevertheless, some might argue that Israel can gain by forging a link with a Palestinian leader.
After the first intifada, when Arafat was still in exile in Tunisia, the sentiment was that no Palestinian leadership "chosen" or supported by Israel had any chance of success. That was why PM Rabin brought Arafat back from exile, expecting him to be grateful and do the dirty work and take care of Hamas. Well, it didn't work out that way, and maybe Abbas won't either, but at least Olmert has to be seen to be trying. On the other hand it will probably be better if Israel does not interfere in internal Palestinian power struggles, that are likely to be messy and bloody, and rather take a detached position, waiting for the dust to settle. Only then can Israel decide what to do, and a re-invasion of Gaza is not out of the question if Hamas wins, now that we know that Hamas terrorists are in Iran being trained by the revolutionary guards.
posted by Jack Cohen at 4:04 PM
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