Glick's analysis
Caroline Glick is Israel’s Condoleeza Rice, although unfortunately she is not in a powerful Government position. She is Managing Editor of the Jerusalem Post and one of their leading columnists. Her analysis is right wing and usually very realistic and quite pessimistic. She spoke to a large audience at our Beit Knesset Tuesday night.
She stated that the international Islamic Jihad lead by the Iranian regime is at war with Israel. She emphasized that Iran considers itself in a perpetual revolutionary jihad against all the infidels, and they see the wiping out of the Jews as part of their divine mission. Contrary to belief, Iran’s borders with Israel are not hundreds of miles away, but actually they are Israel’s borders with Lebanon, Syria and the PA.
Syria has become effectively a colony of Iran, for several reasons. First, Syria has never been a very independent country, it was controlled by the Turks, the French and the Egyptians (Nasserites), before Hafez Assad and the Ba’athists took power. But now under Bashar Assad, the country is almost bankrupt and Assad and the regime have allowed Iran to come in and virtually take over. They have supervised the modernization of the Syrian armed forces from a concentration on tanks and airplanes, which were easily defeated by the IDF, to missiles and commando strike forces.
This is similar to Hizbollah in Lebanon, which is an extension of Iran’s revolutionary guard. Hizbollah has now recouped its position in south Lebanon almost to what it was before the recent war. They have been rearmed and have rebuilt their infrastructure of underground bunkers, and are back in Bint Jbail and all the other southern villages. The presence of UNIFIL has made no difference to them, on the contrary UNIFIL cooperates with them in avoiding clashes while they retake control of the south. Their operations against the Saniora Government have so far failed mainly because of stiff US and French support for that Government. But, if such support were withdrawn then Sheikh Nasrallah would see the weakness and pounce on it.
Also, in the PA, after establishing Palestine Islamic Jihad which it controls, Iran have now virtually bought out both Hamas and Fatah’s military wing, the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades. The “civil war” in the PA can be understood as a fight between terrorist gangs for control, both for money and turf, not as an ideological clash as it is often portrayed.
A crucial individual who has played a role in bringing about the Iranization of the Palestinian conflict is Imad Bugnieh, who started out as a Fatah operative under Arafat, then moved to Iran and became the contact between Arafat and the regime. He was responsible for the shipment of the arms ship Karin A, which was intercepted by the IDF. Bugnieh has been involved in many terrorist bombings, and is the third most wanted terrorist in the US after bin Laden and Zawahiri.
Given the declared intention of the Iranian Government to destroy Israel and their development of nuclear weapons, with help also from N. Korea, and given their increasing proximity and power in the surrounding countries, Glick believes that Israel is “staring annihilation in the face.”
But, it’s as if in Israel the Jews have come to believe that we will always be victorious, without strenuous effort, as if we can rest on our laurels, and expect the next war to be like the previous ones. In believing that we are underestimating our enemies, who now feel that their aim is within their reach. They especially appreciate the weakness that Israel projects by continually withdrawing and accepting criticism. They see this as weakness and are poised to take advantage of it. This becomes truer since we are lead by “dummies,” whose only policy seems to be to remain in office. It is clear to everyone that Amir Peretz is totally incompetent as Defense Minister, even in the Labor Party he ranks sixth and last to all challengers, including “all of the above.” Yet Wednesday he used a speech to a gathering of 500 Army officers at an air base to restate that he will not resign. Since he won’t resign he cannot fire those officers who were responsible for the recent fiasco in Lebanon. For example, who could have developed an army that depends on reservists that had not trained for 5 years! She also pointed out that to advertise the meeting of 500 officers and the site where they would be meeting was an incredible lapse of security, luckily nothing happened!
Olmert, Peretz and Halutz are responsible for the failure of the IDF to be prepared for the improved tactics and strategies of the three Iranian-trained armies (in Lebanon, Syria and the PA) that are now surrounding Israel, and the situation will only get worse while they are in charge.
What to do about this situation? Israel cannot rely on any anti-Iranian policy of the US. They simply won’t take forceful action. Israel has to be prepared not only to take military action, but it can be done. The whole Iranian nuclear industry does not have to be wiped out, the pin-point destruction of a limited number of facilities would cripple their progress for years, giving Israel breathing time. To those who say this would only make the Iranians our enemies, they already are to the utmost extent. Also, to those who say there is “no military solution,” this is not intended to be only a military action, but must be coupled with strong diplomatic and PR activities.
She pointed out that in a recent poll run by the mullahs in Iran an incredible 80% of people said that they would like to see the regime changed! There are many problems in Iran, not only is Ahmedinejad very unpopular for not taking care of domestic policies, but the ordinary people are fed up with the constant harping on Zionism and infidels. Also, Iran is by no means monolithic, it consists of several ethnic groups including 24 million Azeris (more than in Azerbaijan), millions of Baluchis, who consider themselves oppressed by the Persians, and the Arabs in the south (in Arabistan) who are at war with the regime.
Just as Iran is subverting the countries surrounding Israel so Israel needs to become active in subverting the regime, aimed at regime change. This is the only feasible complement to military action. There are millions of Iranians who had good relations with Israel before the revolution, and millions of young people who are fed up with the regime and want a drastic change to a Western system. They will be very sympathetic to subversion that unfortunately is not being done by the US.
Another complementary threat to military action is that Israel must threaten to destroy all the oil industry in Iran, and in any country that helps it (including Saudi Arabia). Since they depend on their oil industry for income it is their vulnerable soft underbelly, more accessible and more easily destroyed than their nuclear facilities. Also, such a threat might waken the West, that depends on Middle Eastern oil, that they must do something about Iran before Israel feels itself forced to act, although that is unlikely.
Finally, how to replace the current Israeli Government that is incompetent and incapable of handling the terrible situation into which they have brought us. Only a dissolution of the coalition could remove Olmert and that could only be accomplished by persuading the parties on the right of his coalition, specifically Shas and Israel Beitenu, who should not be in the coalition anyway, that they are being traitors to their own cause and will lose electoral support and will be defeated at the next election.
Finally, we must change our perspective on the region, and realize that Iraq is not like Northern Ireland or Canada, that have minorities that have come to a democratic compromise. Iraq and the other Muslim countries in the Middle East are more like Yugoslavia, with ethnic groups that hate each other and that have no experience or interest in Western democracy, which they consider a foreign system being imposed on them. However, for all their mutual hatred they will overcome this in order to join up whenever possible to attack and destroy their common enemy, Israel and the Jews. Yet, we are strong enough and committed enough to prevent that and to prevail.
She stated that the international Islamic Jihad lead by the Iranian regime is at war with Israel. She emphasized that Iran considers itself in a perpetual revolutionary jihad against all the infidels, and they see the wiping out of the Jews as part of their divine mission. Contrary to belief, Iran’s borders with Israel are not hundreds of miles away, but actually they are Israel’s borders with Lebanon, Syria and the PA.
Syria has become effectively a colony of Iran, for several reasons. First, Syria has never been a very independent country, it was controlled by the Turks, the French and the Egyptians (Nasserites), before Hafez Assad and the Ba’athists took power. But now under Bashar Assad, the country is almost bankrupt and Assad and the regime have allowed Iran to come in and virtually take over. They have supervised the modernization of the Syrian armed forces from a concentration on tanks and airplanes, which were easily defeated by the IDF, to missiles and commando strike forces.
This is similar to Hizbollah in Lebanon, which is an extension of Iran’s revolutionary guard. Hizbollah has now recouped its position in south Lebanon almost to what it was before the recent war. They have been rearmed and have rebuilt their infrastructure of underground bunkers, and are back in Bint Jbail and all the other southern villages. The presence of UNIFIL has made no difference to them, on the contrary UNIFIL cooperates with them in avoiding clashes while they retake control of the south. Their operations against the Saniora Government have so far failed mainly because of stiff US and French support for that Government. But, if such support were withdrawn then Sheikh Nasrallah would see the weakness and pounce on it.
Also, in the PA, after establishing Palestine Islamic Jihad which it controls, Iran have now virtually bought out both Hamas and Fatah’s military wing, the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades. The “civil war” in the PA can be understood as a fight between terrorist gangs for control, both for money and turf, not as an ideological clash as it is often portrayed.
A crucial individual who has played a role in bringing about the Iranization of the Palestinian conflict is Imad Bugnieh, who started out as a Fatah operative under Arafat, then moved to Iran and became the contact between Arafat and the regime. He was responsible for the shipment of the arms ship Karin A, which was intercepted by the IDF. Bugnieh has been involved in many terrorist bombings, and is the third most wanted terrorist in the US after bin Laden and Zawahiri.
Given the declared intention of the Iranian Government to destroy Israel and their development of nuclear weapons, with help also from N. Korea, and given their increasing proximity and power in the surrounding countries, Glick believes that Israel is “staring annihilation in the face.”
But, it’s as if in Israel the Jews have come to believe that we will always be victorious, without strenuous effort, as if we can rest on our laurels, and expect the next war to be like the previous ones. In believing that we are underestimating our enemies, who now feel that their aim is within their reach. They especially appreciate the weakness that Israel projects by continually withdrawing and accepting criticism. They see this as weakness and are poised to take advantage of it. This becomes truer since we are lead by “dummies,” whose only policy seems to be to remain in office. It is clear to everyone that Amir Peretz is totally incompetent as Defense Minister, even in the Labor Party he ranks sixth and last to all challengers, including “all of the above.” Yet Wednesday he used a speech to a gathering of 500 Army officers at an air base to restate that he will not resign. Since he won’t resign he cannot fire those officers who were responsible for the recent fiasco in Lebanon. For example, who could have developed an army that depends on reservists that had not trained for 5 years! She also pointed out that to advertise the meeting of 500 officers and the site where they would be meeting was an incredible lapse of security, luckily nothing happened!
Olmert, Peretz and Halutz are responsible for the failure of the IDF to be prepared for the improved tactics and strategies of the three Iranian-trained armies (in Lebanon, Syria and the PA) that are now surrounding Israel, and the situation will only get worse while they are in charge.
What to do about this situation? Israel cannot rely on any anti-Iranian policy of the US. They simply won’t take forceful action. Israel has to be prepared not only to take military action, but it can be done. The whole Iranian nuclear industry does not have to be wiped out, the pin-point destruction of a limited number of facilities would cripple their progress for years, giving Israel breathing time. To those who say this would only make the Iranians our enemies, they already are to the utmost extent. Also, to those who say there is “no military solution,” this is not intended to be only a military action, but must be coupled with strong diplomatic and PR activities.
She pointed out that in a recent poll run by the mullahs in Iran an incredible 80% of people said that they would like to see the regime changed! There are many problems in Iran, not only is Ahmedinejad very unpopular for not taking care of domestic policies, but the ordinary people are fed up with the constant harping on Zionism and infidels. Also, Iran is by no means monolithic, it consists of several ethnic groups including 24 million Azeris (more than in Azerbaijan), millions of Baluchis, who consider themselves oppressed by the Persians, and the Arabs in the south (in Arabistan) who are at war with the regime.
Just as Iran is subverting the countries surrounding Israel so Israel needs to become active in subverting the regime, aimed at regime change. This is the only feasible complement to military action. There are millions of Iranians who had good relations with Israel before the revolution, and millions of young people who are fed up with the regime and want a drastic change to a Western system. They will be very sympathetic to subversion that unfortunately is not being done by the US.
Another complementary threat to military action is that Israel must threaten to destroy all the oil industry in Iran, and in any country that helps it (including Saudi Arabia). Since they depend on their oil industry for income it is their vulnerable soft underbelly, more accessible and more easily destroyed than their nuclear facilities. Also, such a threat might waken the West, that depends on Middle Eastern oil, that they must do something about Iran before Israel feels itself forced to act, although that is unlikely.
Finally, how to replace the current Israeli Government that is incompetent and incapable of handling the terrible situation into which they have brought us. Only a dissolution of the coalition could remove Olmert and that could only be accomplished by persuading the parties on the right of his coalition, specifically Shas and Israel Beitenu, who should not be in the coalition anyway, that they are being traitors to their own cause and will lose electoral support and will be defeated at the next election.
Finally, we must change our perspective on the region, and realize that Iraq is not like Northern Ireland or Canada, that have minorities that have come to a democratic compromise. Iraq and the other Muslim countries in the Middle East are more like Yugoslavia, with ethnic groups that hate each other and that have no experience or interest in Western democracy, which they consider a foreign system being imposed on them. However, for all their mutual hatred they will overcome this in order to join up whenever possible to attack and destroy their common enemy, Israel and the Jews. Yet, we are strong enough and committed enough to prevent that and to prevail.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:45 PM
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