Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Optimism?

EU Foreign Policy Chief Xavier Solana recently stated that there is now "a window of opportunity" in the Middle East to bring Israel and the Palestinians together to negotiate peace. What nonsense!
But, he is not alone, many others continue to express unbridled optimism, unsupported by any actual evidence. Those not directly involved in the Middle East generally tend to express optimistic views, until such a time as they hope by chance they might be right. Recently, the German FM said the same thing and so did the Canadian FM, and Condi Rice was practically falling over herself to express support for Pres. Abbas and negotiations with PM Olmert during her recent visit and meetings. The Quartet are also meeting in an atmosphere of hope. What is the basis for all this optimism? Actually nothing!
It's more a continuous sense that anyone can interfere in our affairs, give us advice and take a stab at solving our problems, and generally be helpful, when they have not the slightest idea about the real situation. I mean, give me a break, things couldn't be worse for a peaceful solution, they couldn't be further from a possible solution that they have ever been.
There is a crisis in the PA, with two blocs fighting each other. Those left-wing-liberals, who say that "violence solves nothing," have no idea what is going on. The two sides, Fatah and Hamas, are part of a larger clash within the Muslim/Arab world between the Islamic view and the nationalist view. Hamas want to establish an Islamic state in place of Israel, and Fatah want to establish a Palestinian State, preferably in place of Israel, but if they can't do that at least in all of the West Bank and Gaza. But, before any progress to peace can take place the two sides have to decide which way they are going.
At present there is no partner for peace, Abbas is unable to move in any direction, even with all the support he is getting from the West. For example, where did he go to get help, he made the Hajj to Syria. At first Khaled Mashaal, Head of the Hamas political bureau in Damascus, refused to see him (the President of the Palestinians). Only after the intervention of Pres. Assad, did a meeting take place. Of course, Abbas begged Mashaal to form a National Unity Government, but Mashaal rejected that. So Abbas is left hanging, he is being pushed further and further into a corner, until his only option is the military one, civil war. On the face of it Fatah should win such a clash, because Abbas has tens of thousands of security forces (maybe 40,000) while Hamas are severely outnumbered (maybe 10,000). But, Hamas have Syria and Iran behind them and they are playing rough.
A very similar and parallel scenario is playing out in Lebanon, where Sheikh Nasrullah is trying to bring down PM Seniora and his Government. The fact that it was elected makes no difference to Hizbollah, they are in effect staging a coup, but without so far actually attacking the Government forces. If Seniora orders his army to attack Hizbollah, noone knows what will happen, will they do so, will they refuse, or will there be a civil war. So far Seniora is trying to appear conciliatory. Nasrullah is banking on the fear of the Christians and Sunnis of returning to a civil war, whereas he and his forces are quite prepared for that outcome.
The general Islamist strategy is to force out any pro-Western governments in Iraq, Lebanon and the PA, and thereby to strengthen and unify the pro-Iranian Islamist forces throughout the Middle East. Now you might think this would be considered a major threat to the other Sunni Arab States, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. But according to an eminent analyst, former CIA Chief James Woolsey, speaking at the Herzliya Conference, these States are not yet showing any real concern. They are still stuck in their rut of considering Israel their main enemy and being ambivalent to or outright opposing US policy in Iraq. But, although they want the US out of Iraq, they realize that would almost certainly lead to Iranian expansion into the Shia areas (which is already happening) and this could be a more direct threat to them. So they don't actually want the US to withdraw. But, as usual they are not doing anything positive to support the US, in case they are labelled pro-American, which the Islamist opposition labels them anyway.
At the same time, Israel is afflicted with a weak and indecisive Government, that should have resigned after the Lebanon War. The Defense Minister is a joke, and the PM now has less than 20% support. The President is also about to be indicted on several charges. The IDF has not recovered from the fiasco of the Lebanense war, and the new Commander in Chief Ashkenazi has only just been appointed. Under these circumstances Israel is hardly capable of countering any meaningful clash. Meanwhile the rockets continue to fall in the south.
Woolsey predicts that the Sunni Arabs will wake up to the true threat to their regimes too late, by which time neither the US and certainly not Israel could save them. Only a determined combination lead by the US, with Israel and/or the Sunni Arab States could prevent the Iranian ascendency, and soon it may be too late. If Iran gets nuclear weapons then the game is over, and many deaths could not be averted!

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