Abbas the "moderate"
"Shooting at your brother is forbidden. Raising rifles against the occupation is our legitimate right, but raising guns against each other is forbidden. We should put our internal fighting aside and raise our rifles only against the Israeli occupation," said Pres. Abbas in a speech in Ramallah last week celebrating the 42nd anniversary of the founding of Fatah..
This at a time when the US is arranging to pay m$86 to Abbas, and when Secty. of State Rice, on her trip to the Middle East, has agreed to organize a three way meeting between Abbas, PM Olmert and herself soon in Washington. Abbas is the Palestinian "moderate" leader, but only relative to Hamas. And just as with Arafat, the US is pushing Israel to "empower" Abbas in order to strengthen him. So rather than the Palestinians, the weaker party, making any concessions or gestures to Israel (whatever happened to the release of Cpl. Shalit?), Israel must make all the gestures and concessions.
Olmert has agreed to this meeting in order to avoid another "Madrid" type meeting where everyone, including the Europeans, will gang up on Israel. Nevertheless the effect will be the same, pressure by the Sunni Arab allies of the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf States, has been put on Rice in exchange for what? The formula as expressed by the Saudis is "Iraq for peace," i.e. if you want our support for US moves in Iraq, that delegitimize the Sunni ascendency over the Shia, then you must deliver Israel. How long such a modus vivendi can last is unclear, but since the US needs moderate Arab support now for the "surge" in 25,000 US troops being sent to Iraq to provide increased security in Baghdad, in the short term the Bush administration will accede, or at least appear to do so.
Rice herself said this week that progress towards a Palestinian State is independent of progress in Iraq. So while the Arab States are trying to couple everything to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, she states clearly that there is really no linkage. But, perception plays a large part in determining reality, and so this Washington summit will probably proceed.
In the longer term, since Olmert's popularity continues to plunge, nothing he can do, short of destroying Iran's nuclear/missile facilities, could help him. So he will go to Washington, and try to seem statesmanlike, but just as with Abbas, nothing will help, and the talks there will be a sham and a waste of time.
This at a time when the US is arranging to pay m$86 to Abbas, and when Secty. of State Rice, on her trip to the Middle East, has agreed to organize a three way meeting between Abbas, PM Olmert and herself soon in Washington. Abbas is the Palestinian "moderate" leader, but only relative to Hamas. And just as with Arafat, the US is pushing Israel to "empower" Abbas in order to strengthen him. So rather than the Palestinians, the weaker party, making any concessions or gestures to Israel (whatever happened to the release of Cpl. Shalit?), Israel must make all the gestures and concessions.
Olmert has agreed to this meeting in order to avoid another "Madrid" type meeting where everyone, including the Europeans, will gang up on Israel. Nevertheless the effect will be the same, pressure by the Sunni Arab allies of the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf States, has been put on Rice in exchange for what? The formula as expressed by the Saudis is "Iraq for peace," i.e. if you want our support for US moves in Iraq, that delegitimize the Sunni ascendency over the Shia, then you must deliver Israel. How long such a modus vivendi can last is unclear, but since the US needs moderate Arab support now for the "surge" in 25,000 US troops being sent to Iraq to provide increased security in Baghdad, in the short term the Bush administration will accede, or at least appear to do so.
Rice herself said this week that progress towards a Palestinian State is independent of progress in Iraq. So while the Arab States are trying to couple everything to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, she states clearly that there is really no linkage. But, perception plays a large part in determining reality, and so this Washington summit will probably proceed.
In the longer term, since Olmert's popularity continues to plunge, nothing he can do, short of destroying Iran's nuclear/missile facilities, could help him. So he will go to Washington, and try to seem statesmanlike, but just as with Abbas, nothing will help, and the talks there will be a sham and a waste of time.
posted by Jack Cohen at 4:37 PM
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