Detour
Perhaps the most important event during last week was a little noted agreement between the Israel Govt. security agency and the PA security services under the Govt. of Salam Fayyed in Ramallah, the West Bank. Under this agreement, the armed factions affiliated with Fatah (mostly the al Aksa Martyr Brigades) will stop attacks against Israel and Israeli civilians in exchange for the IDF not pursuing them and not shooting them. No doubt the toll of the terrorists in each locality has been high, since the IDF has been killing on average 2 or 3 a day in gun battles, as well as arresting hundreds over time.
It was a condition of Israel that before serious negotiations can be undertaken between Israel and the PA/WB, they had to take action to curb the terrorist gangs in their territory. Until now there has been no attempt by the PA under Pres. Abbas to do this, so that the PA has been in a state of chaos, with various gangs with different affiliations (Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad) fighting for control of each locality. Now finally Abbas seems to be serious about "one gun, one law" and this was no doubt triggered by the growth of Hamas in Gaza, that enabled them to take over there. The danger that this could also happen on the West Bank prompted Abbas and Fayyad to institute the first security control of all armed factions. From now on it is illegal for gunman to roam the streets openly with guns. They may keep them, but at home.
This is a very important first step, since it accomplishes the first baby step that was laid out in the Road Map peace plan, namely that Abbas must stop all terrorist attacks and curb the terrorist organizations. Since there has been agreement (supposedly) by the al Aksa Brigades in the West Bank to this agreement, then there is a chance of success. Of course, since Hamas and IJ are enemies of Fatah and have not accepted this agreement, any "illegal" actions by them should be suppressed by the PA security forces, so the IDF should not have to intervene. However, the IDF is still allowed to actively attack or pursue any groups that break the agreement.
Although progress on the Road Map has been deeply mired in mud, this current agreement represents a minor detour around the problem, and should enable further progress between Israel and the PA/WB. The release of 250 Fatah prisoners by Olmert was a "good will gesture" by Israel towards Abbas. We don't expect any reciprocal gestures from the PA to Israel, but at least Israel now says it has a "partner" in the peace process. Tony Blair arrived today, and he couldn't have come at a more propitious time. However, the outstanding question is what will he do about Gaza and Hamas?
It was a condition of Israel that before serious negotiations can be undertaken between Israel and the PA/WB, they had to take action to curb the terrorist gangs in their territory. Until now there has been no attempt by the PA under Pres. Abbas to do this, so that the PA has been in a state of chaos, with various gangs with different affiliations (Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad) fighting for control of each locality. Now finally Abbas seems to be serious about "one gun, one law" and this was no doubt triggered by the growth of Hamas in Gaza, that enabled them to take over there. The danger that this could also happen on the West Bank prompted Abbas and Fayyad to institute the first security control of all armed factions. From now on it is illegal for gunman to roam the streets openly with guns. They may keep them, but at home.
This is a very important first step, since it accomplishes the first baby step that was laid out in the Road Map peace plan, namely that Abbas must stop all terrorist attacks and curb the terrorist organizations. Since there has been agreement (supposedly) by the al Aksa Brigades in the West Bank to this agreement, then there is a chance of success. Of course, since Hamas and IJ are enemies of Fatah and have not accepted this agreement, any "illegal" actions by them should be suppressed by the PA security forces, so the IDF should not have to intervene. However, the IDF is still allowed to actively attack or pursue any groups that break the agreement.
Although progress on the Road Map has been deeply mired in mud, this current agreement represents a minor detour around the problem, and should enable further progress between Israel and the PA/WB. The release of 250 Fatah prisoners by Olmert was a "good will gesture" by Israel towards Abbas. We don't expect any reciprocal gestures from the PA to Israel, but at least Israel now says it has a "partner" in the peace process. Tony Blair arrived today, and he couldn't have come at a more propitious time. However, the outstanding question is what will he do about Gaza and Hamas?
posted by Jack Cohen at 10:21 AM
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