The Palestinian dilemma
On the West Bank, the PA Security Forces are finally taking action against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, so that the IDF does not have to do this job there. Now Israel has an agreement with the PA on the West Bank not to target Fatah extremists on its wanted list as long as they refrain from acts of terrorism against Israel, so the IDF has more time to focus on Hamas and IJ terrorists in Gaza. Last week Israel killed a leader of Islamic Jihad in Gaza who was responsible for killing Israelis. He had narrowly escaped a targeted killing a few days earlier that missed his car and hit a nearby building under construction. Maybe he thought that he would not be targeted again so soon.
Now there is a strategic dilemma for Israel and the West. Should they consider the peace process unalterably disrupted by the separation of Gaza and the WB into "Hamastan" and "Fatahland," or should they simply ignore Hamas/Gaza as beyond the pale, for not accepting Israel's right to exist and not stopping terrorism, and negotiate only with Pres. Abbas as the leader of the Palestinian people.
For the West, notably the US and UK, the latter course has been decided upon. Everything will be done to bolster Abbas relative to Hamas, and this includes negotiating with him and excluding Hamas. Abbas most recently went to Moscow and persuaded Pres. Putin to change his policy of accepting Hamas, the only one of the Quartet to do so.
The Arab States are upset that Hamas, or rather the 1.4 million Palestinians in Gaza, are being left out of upcoming negotiations. They are also upset that Syria, that has been supporting Iran and acting violently in Lebanon, is also left out by the US. This puts Israel in a bind. On the one hand, in some respects they have to deal with Gaza, even though Hamas will not deal with Israel, for example by allowing thousands of Palestinians trapped in Egypt to return home and supplying humanitarian assistance. But, on the other hand, they cannot afford to oppose US decisions to deal with Abbas, who is a weak and unreliable leader, but the only one who will deal. So for the near future it looks like all the eggs are in the Abbas basket. Clearly if Abbas makes any kind of deal it will be rejected by Hamas and others as an American imposition. But, it might be the thin edge of the wedge. Better an American fostered deal than no deal at all.
Meanhwhile the US continues to try to develop an anti-Iran front, consisting of the so-called moderate Sunni Arab States (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States) by giving them extensive weapons deals, and making the potential threat to Israel more palatable by expanding military assistance to Israel from b$2.3 to b$3 per year. These multi-billion dollar deals are intended to run for 5 years, during which time it is hoped that the Iranian threat will either have faded or will have to be faced militarily. So Secty. of State Condolezza Rice is now touring the region with a large entourage. Her progress is being carefully monitored.
Now there is a strategic dilemma for Israel and the West. Should they consider the peace process unalterably disrupted by the separation of Gaza and the WB into "Hamastan" and "Fatahland," or should they simply ignore Hamas/Gaza as beyond the pale, for not accepting Israel's right to exist and not stopping terrorism, and negotiate only with Pres. Abbas as the leader of the Palestinian people.
For the West, notably the US and UK, the latter course has been decided upon. Everything will be done to bolster Abbas relative to Hamas, and this includes negotiating with him and excluding Hamas. Abbas most recently went to Moscow and persuaded Pres. Putin to change his policy of accepting Hamas, the only one of the Quartet to do so.
The Arab States are upset that Hamas, or rather the 1.4 million Palestinians in Gaza, are being left out of upcoming negotiations. They are also upset that Syria, that has been supporting Iran and acting violently in Lebanon, is also left out by the US. This puts Israel in a bind. On the one hand, in some respects they have to deal with Gaza, even though Hamas will not deal with Israel, for example by allowing thousands of Palestinians trapped in Egypt to return home and supplying humanitarian assistance. But, on the other hand, they cannot afford to oppose US decisions to deal with Abbas, who is a weak and unreliable leader, but the only one who will deal. So for the near future it looks like all the eggs are in the Abbas basket. Clearly if Abbas makes any kind of deal it will be rejected by Hamas and others as an American imposition. But, it might be the thin edge of the wedge. Better an American fostered deal than no deal at all.
Meanhwhile the US continues to try to develop an anti-Iran front, consisting of the so-called moderate Sunni Arab States (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States) by giving them extensive weapons deals, and making the potential threat to Israel more palatable by expanding military assistance to Israel from b$2.3 to b$3 per year. These multi-billion dollar deals are intended to run for 5 years, during which time it is hoped that the Iranian threat will either have faded or will have to be faced militarily. So Secty. of State Condolezza Rice is now touring the region with a large entourage. Her progress is being carefully monitored.
posted by Jack Cohen at 8:35 PM
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