Sunday, September 23, 2007

Collective punishment

One of the main arguments against Israeli counter-measures to the constant barrage of rockets fired from Gaza into Israel is that they are “collective punishment.” I reject that argument, for to accept it is to be paralyzed in the face of aggression.
Here is a counter-example, when the Italian Government was searching for the perpetrators of the murder of former PM Aldo Moro, they found it impossible to catch the leaders of the Red Brigades who were responsible. However, they realized that in order for the leaders to hide successfully in safe houses and to be fed and to be able to communicate and plan, there had to be a much larger group of hard-core sympathizers, who provided the safe houses, who took messages between leaders, etc. And for this hard-core to be active they too had to be supported by a larger group of soft-core supporters, those who gave money, ran errands, showed up at demonstrations, etc. So, the Italian security forces concentrated on finding the outer two groups and following the leads into the center. This strategy worked (for details see “The Terror Network” by Claire Sterling). If there were only ca. 50 actual members of the Red Brigades, and the two outer circles were each 10x the size of the inner ones, then that makes ca. 500 hard-core supporters and ca. 5000 soft-core.
But, in Gaza there is not one terrorist organization, but ca. 10. Of course, there are the largest, Hamas and Fatah (al Aksa Brigades), each with about (say) 1,000 active members. Then there are the Popular Resistance Committees, Islamic Jihad, the PFLP, and the many local branches that are virtually autonomous, in Khan Yunis and each of the so-called refugee camps. If each of these has 100 core members, then if we add up that makes ca. 3,000 total core members, 30,000 hard-core supporters and ca. 300,000 soft-core supporters. That is ca. one quarter of the total Gaza Strip population of ca.1.4 million Palestinians.
This estimate is supported by the poll statistics, in which ca. 65% of the Gaza population agree that suicide bombings against Israeli civilians are justified and the scenes of celebration, with distribution of sweets on the streets, when Israelis are killed. Given these statistics, collective punishment of Gaza is highly justified.
But, then again the Israeli Govt. avoids collective punishment, and only carries out targeted raids, and has so far not reduced the electricity, gas, gasoline, food and medical supplies that are flowing into Gaza from Israel. In the absence of any moderation in Gaza, the fact that it is controlled by a terrorist organization, the continued shooting of rockets, and the fact that Gaza has now been officially declared a “hostile entity” by Israel, many of us think that the time for "collective punishment" is now.

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