Thursday, September 20, 2007

Sideshow

Condoleeza Rice is having meetings in Jerusalem and Ramallah trying to prepare the ground for the international conference on Mid-East peace due to take place in Washington in November.
Pres. Abbas of the Fatah West Bank has indicated that he is reluctant to attend the conference for several reasons. He wants Israel to agree to his pre-conditions (acceptance of refugee's "right of return", division of Jerusalem and establishment of a Palestine State) in advance of the conference, now that's chutzpah! He says he wants this rather than a statement of principles that PM Olmert has proposed, because that won't be serious enough to justify the attendance of other Arab States, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. They don't want just a "photo-op." But, PM Olmert is not about to make major concessions in advance.
Abbas is in a weak position, not only because he has lost Gaza to Hamas, but also because the other Arab States are not fully supporting him, they want an accomodation between Fatah and Hamas, otherwise they fear they will come to the conference in a weakened position. Meanwhile, PM Olmert's popularity is gradually rising. Since March when he hit the low of 3% his popularity has risen now to 35%! This is in part due to the recent IAF attack on Syria, but also because he has managed to stave off the pressures of both the right and left and has kept a cool head (some would say a passive attitude) during times of stress.
Following the tragic rocket attack last week on the Zikim Army base in Ashkelon that injured 66 IDF conscripts, the Cabinet finally made a decision. They declared Gaza a "hostile territory," that now enables the Govt. legally to cut off some humanitarian supplies, such as electricity and gas, and allows the IDF to carry our unlimited military action.
Leader of the opposition Bibi Netanyahu has notably not been attacking Olmert, and this has allowed Olmert some breathing space. The reasons for this may not only be that Netanyahu is being diplomatic, but that Olmert has included Netanyahu in his briefings of the current situation, and there may be some collusion between them, particularly if the going gets tought in relation to Iran and/or Syria. Today Netanyahu was criticized for ackowledging that IAF jets did strike Syria.
On July 23, according to Jane's Defense Weekly, there was an explosion in Syria while a chemical warhead was being attached to a long range rocket (of N. Korean design) near the Iranian border in a joint Syrian-Iranian project, and many military from both countries were killed. While this happened before the Israeli air strike, and is presumably not connected to it, it does indicate the kind of activity that is going on involving the "axis of evil" N. Korea, Syria and Iran.
Pres. Bush is now a "lame duck" and has less than 2 years to go in his presidency. Certainly Israel will want to cooperate with him and with Rice to try to make the impending conference a success. But, given that the Palestinains are really a low level priority, with Iran first, Syria second, Hizbollah and Lebanon third, the Palestinians are way down the list, even though many people mistakenly think they are the key to the whole situation. But, Iran and Syria are not going to change their policies one bit, with or without a peace process involving the Palestinians. So the conference may be important, but will likely be a distraction from the main action going on elsewhere.

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