Thursday, December 06, 2007

From Oslo to Annapolis

There is not much that connects Oslo, the capital of Norway, with Annapolis, the capital of the US State of Maryland. But, they will forever be connected by having been loci of negotiations of the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Things looked so promising after the Oslo accords were announced in 1993. Little did we know how the Palestinians had tricked us, and the negotiators on the Israeli side were incredibly naieve. In the negotiations they believed everything that the Palestinians told them, and made concessions that were not checked by any security or military advisors. Remember that these negotiations were carried out by the Left, Yitzhak Rabin was PM, and Shimon Peres was the FM behind the agreement, and the chief negotiator was Yossi Beilin, now head of the left-wing Meretz-Yahad Party, who admitted that he deliberately kept the two senior leaders in the dark as to the details of the negotiations to prevent them from interfering. In between there was the aborted Camp David negotiations of 2000, that lead directly to the second intifada, that raised the level of violence significantly. As a direct result of these "peace" negotiations ca. 2,000 Israelis were killed by terrorists.
Now things don't look much better for the outcome of the Annapolis negotiations. Although PM Olmert is the Head of the Kadima party, which is supposedly centrist and committed to (unilateral) withdrawals, after the fiasco of Gaza no further withdrawals have been suggested. Nevertheless, Olmert was once a leader and bright-eyed boy of the Likud Party and he can't have forgotten everything (hopefully). And this time the whole Israeli Government is involved, not a small group of committed leftists, and that might make a difference.
Although the teams of negotiators of both sides are poised to start meeting next week, things do not look too promising. This week Pres. Abbas and his Fatah leadership announced that if the IDF invades Gaza they will break off all negotiations and fight with Hamas in Gaza. What is most insane given this statement is that Israel is poised to give a gift of 25 armed personnel carriers to the PA (that are supposed to help bolster Abbas)! Talk about suicidal!
Hamas (and Fatah) have significantly increased the number of mortar shells being fired into Israel. Six months ago it was ca. 10 a month now it is ca. 250! And the number of rockets have also been increased. The IDF in response has increased its surveillance and quick response, so that more Palestinian terrorists are being killed in Gaza in the act of preparing or firing mortars and/or rockets. It is clear that Hamas is escalating these attacks in order to induce Israel to respond, and that would be an end to the Annapolis process.
Also, Abbas has specifically declared that he will not recognise Israel as a Jewish State (although the PA is self-identified as a Muslim entity), while Olmert has stated that he will not negotiate with anyone who denies this (but Olmert is flexible). Also, the sides differ fundamentally on the issues of Jerusalem (the PA wants at least half of Jerusalem, Israel will give either nothing or only the Arab suburbs), and refugees (Abbas will refuse to accept Palestinian refugees, claiming that they should all go to Israel, while Israel will accept none). However, one could say that this is precisely why direct negotiations are needed between reasonable leaders who are prepared to compromise. But, if anyone has seen any report of any Palestinian leader proposing any compromise from their side I'd like to hear of it! Meanwhile Pres. Bush announced that neither side is required to adhere specifically to the terms of the Road Map, which means that Abbas won't have to stop all terrorism before Israel agrees to anything (but Israel also won't have to remove all settlements!). Is this an encouraging start, I think not!
Fourteen years separate Olso from Annapolis, and apart from the fact that Saudi Arabia attended the Annapolis conference nothing much else has changed. If you look at them askance Oslo and Annapolis start to look very much alike.

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