Sunday, December 16, 2007

Kossovo

In January, 2008, the Kossovars are to vote on the question of independence for their province of Kossovo. This is the last part of the former Yugoslavia that is still not independent. The others are Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia, all independent republics carved out of the Balkans from the former Yugoslavia. But, Kossovo is a special case, since it is considered part of historic Serbia by the Serbs, but is now inhabited mainly by Albanians who moved from nearby Albania over the centuries, while the Serbs moved out.
Matters came to a head in 1996 when the Serbian Army, as part of Milosevic's expansion plans, expelled practically the whole Kossovo Albanian Muslim population of ca. 1.5 million people, to Albania and Macedonia. The Kossovo Liberation Army was ineffective in stopping the much more powerful Serbian Army. The UN failed to take action, but finally NATO did, in 1999 they attacked the Serbian Army in Kossovo and then also bombed Serbia, including Belgrade and other cities. Finally the Serbian Army was withdrawn and the Kossovar refugees were able to return home. Of course, they exacted vengeance on the Orthodox Christian Serbs still living in Kossovo, most of whom, except for a small region in the north around Mitrovica, were forced to flee to Serbia.
Because of these reciprocal cases of ethnic cleansing, much like what happened between Serbs and Muslims in Bosnia, the solution for Kossovo is very difficult. When NATO and the UN intervened to save the Kossovars, it was agreed to ensure Serbian cooperation, that Kossovo would not be allowed to become independent. But, finally after years of UN/NATO occupation, the time has come to gauge the views of the Kossovo population in a plebiscite. There is no doubt that they will opt for full independence.
Serbia, now under a more democratic regime than before, has nevertheless said that it will oppose full independence for Kossovo, and this may lead to another war. The presence of NATO troops may prevent this getting out of hand, but there is little doubt that Serbia cannot hold onto Kossovo indefinitely as a captive colony.
This conflict has repercussions for other European countries. Should the UK allow Scotland to secede and become an independent country, should Spain allow Catalonia to break away, should Russia allow Chechnya, should Belgium be split between the Flemish and the French-speaking Walloons. These are all very difficult questions that may disturb the status quo. Clearly there is no one solution that fits all, but it seems certain that Muslim Albanian Kossovo will no longer allow itself to be controlled by Christian Orthodox Serbia.

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