Palestinian islands
The situation in Gaza has hotted up. After the killing of an Ecuadorian volunteer by a sniper from Gaza on Monday and the firing of ca. 28 rockets into the Negev, the IDF responded with a raid on Tuesday that killed 18, including the terrorist son of Hamas FM Mahmud Zahar. Today the terrorists, including Hamas, rained ca. 50 rockets into Sderot and nearby kibbutzim, the most in any single day, thus upping the ante.
The Israeli Government is not responding effectively and is not preventing the firing of rockets, partly because PM Olmert is more concerned about his political survival than the situation around Gaza. Today, as expected, Avigdor Lieberman took his Israel Beiteinu Party out of the Coalition, leaving Olmert with a small majority of 7 seats. It is expected that other parties will follow after Jan 31 when the Winograd Report is issued, thus possibly leading to the collapse of the Govt. and new elections.
But, what to do about Gaza? You may have noted a huge difference between Gaza and the West Bank in terms of the amount of active terrorism from there. This is because Israel has constructed a security fence around the West Bank, but also the IDF occupies the territory around the 7 major cities that constitute the PA (Bethlehem, Jericho, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm and Kalkilya ) and can enter these cities any time it deems necessary for Israeli security. For example, today the head of the Islamic Jihad military wing in the West Bank, Walid Obeidi, was killed in a gunfight in Jenin. In this way, by monitoring the terrorist activity and taking preemptive action, the number of terrorist acts in Israel have been reduced to manageable proportions.
Gaza is also cut off from Israel by an effective security fence, but the smuggling of rockets and explosives into Gaza from Egypt is so extensive now that these have become the greatest threat to Israel. Israel needs to mount an operation like Operation Defensive Shield of 2002, which after the end of any further Israeli withdrawals in the West Bank under the Oslo Accords, allowed Israel to surround the Palestinian cities and attack them at will. Even though Gaza is under Hamas control there is no reason why a similar situation could not prevail there.
Let Israel undertake DSII (as suggested by Yuval Steinitz) and occupy the regions around the Gaza cities and isolate Gaza City, Beit Hanun, Rafah, Khan Yunis and set up roadblocks and checkpoints between them, just as in the West Bank. These checkpoints isolate the local terrorist groups and catch many terrorists in the act of smuggling arms and explosives. By surrounding these Palestinian islands, Israel can prevent the rocket launching and reduce the situation to the same as that on the West Bank. At the same time the IDF will avoid having to enter the centers of these cities and engage in close house to house combat, which favors the defender. But, the IDF can then take care of each city one at a time.
Although this is not an ideal solution, Israel can maintain this posture indefinitely, occupying all territory except for the PA cities, and isolating them from any major cooperative military activity. Thus, the Palestinian islands will exist as an archipelago in an Israeli sea, and they cannot obtain contiguity without the express agreement of Israel as a result of mutually acceptable negotiations.
The Israeli Government is not responding effectively and is not preventing the firing of rockets, partly because PM Olmert is more concerned about his political survival than the situation around Gaza. Today, as expected, Avigdor Lieberman took his Israel Beiteinu Party out of the Coalition, leaving Olmert with a small majority of 7 seats. It is expected that other parties will follow after Jan 31 when the Winograd Report is issued, thus possibly leading to the collapse of the Govt. and new elections.
But, what to do about Gaza? You may have noted a huge difference between Gaza and the West Bank in terms of the amount of active terrorism from there. This is because Israel has constructed a security fence around the West Bank, but also the IDF occupies the territory around the 7 major cities that constitute the PA (Bethlehem, Jericho, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm and Kalkilya ) and can enter these cities any time it deems necessary for Israeli security. For example, today the head of the Islamic Jihad military wing in the West Bank, Walid Obeidi, was killed in a gunfight in Jenin. In this way, by monitoring the terrorist activity and taking preemptive action, the number of terrorist acts in Israel have been reduced to manageable proportions.
Gaza is also cut off from Israel by an effective security fence, but the smuggling of rockets and explosives into Gaza from Egypt is so extensive now that these have become the greatest threat to Israel. Israel needs to mount an operation like Operation Defensive Shield of 2002, which after the end of any further Israeli withdrawals in the West Bank under the Oslo Accords, allowed Israel to surround the Palestinian cities and attack them at will. Even though Gaza is under Hamas control there is no reason why a similar situation could not prevail there.
Let Israel undertake DSII (as suggested by Yuval Steinitz) and occupy the regions around the Gaza cities and isolate Gaza City, Beit Hanun, Rafah, Khan Yunis and set up roadblocks and checkpoints between them, just as in the West Bank. These checkpoints isolate the local terrorist groups and catch many terrorists in the act of smuggling arms and explosives. By surrounding these Palestinian islands, Israel can prevent the rocket launching and reduce the situation to the same as that on the West Bank. At the same time the IDF will avoid having to enter the centers of these cities and engage in close house to house combat, which favors the defender. But, the IDF can then take care of each city one at a time.
Although this is not an ideal solution, Israel can maintain this posture indefinitely, occupying all territory except for the PA cities, and isolating them from any major cooperative military activity. Thus, the Palestinian islands will exist as an archipelago in an Israeli sea, and they cannot obtain contiguity without the express agreement of Israel as a result of mutually acceptable negotiations.
posted by Jack Cohen at 3:58 PM
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