Action in Gaza
There are several reasons why the Olmert Government has hesitated about unleashing a major IDF ground offensive in Gaza:
1. The Lebanon War syndrome: Just as in the Second Lebanon War, Olmert, Barak and the IDF Chief of Staff Ashkenazi, are afraid that although a major ground invasion of Gaza would destroy much of the Hamas' infrastructure, it might have little or no effect on the volume of rockets being fired into Israel. Remember that one of the major aims enunciated by Olmert at the beginning of the 2006 war was to stop the rockets from Lebanon, yet despite all the efforts of the IDF, Hizbullah managed to continue firing rockets at Haifa and northern Israel until the end of the war. Now the IDF, despite its reorganization and retraining, cannot afford to let this happen again. It has lost a lot of its deterrent power, and this would make it much worse.
2. Loss of Israeli lives or captured soldiers. The Govt. fears that going into Gaza would be like a trap, walking into a better trained Hamas army waiting to kill IDF soldiers and capture some to be held hostage. The Govt. has to weight potential IDF losses against those being suffered from the rockets falling in Sderot and now in Ashkelon.
3. Hizbollah retaliation. If the IDF invades Gaza there is a high likelihood that Hizbollah, just as they did in 2006, will initiate military actions against Israel on the northern border in coordination with Hamas in the south. The IDF can certainly fight on both fronts, but doing so is obviously worse than on one front. Israel does not want to give Hizbollah an excuse for reinitiating a war on the Lebanese front.
4. Humanitarian disaster. The world is breathing down Olmert's neck whispering "no humanitarian disaster". Olmert has responded with an assurance that he will not allow that to happen in Gaza. But, as soon as an IDF offensive gets underway the degree of "collateral damage" and the cries of "humanitarian disaster" will ring out in the world's media and halls of diplomacy, whatever the actual situation.
5. Peace negotiations. As a result of increased IDF action in Gaza in response to rocket attacks, the peace negotiations with PA Pres Abbas under the Annapolis agreement are likely to be postponed or halted. In fact, it has been suggested that any Israeli action in Gaza helps Hamas vis-a-vis Fatah because Hamas appears as the Palestinina fighting force while Fatah is passive. However, losses sustained by Hamas are also positive as far as Israel and Fatah are concerened, although Fatah would never admit it.
Notwithstanding all these considerations, the Olmert Govt. has decided to take action. Doing nothing is currently untenable, and continuing the policy of selective targeted attacks is clearly not working in reducing the severity of the rocket attacks from Gaza. Therefore, logically the only remaining alternative, that any self-respecting country or Govt. could adopt, must be to counter-attack. This is what Olmert approved and active fighting is now going on in Gaza. So far 61 Palestinians have been killed (est.) and two IDF soldiers (who were already buried this morning). Given the sophistication and multiplicity of Israeli capabilities this should be a one-sided contest. But, ultimately the only way to stop the rockets is to take and occupy the ground from which they are being fired. Let's hope that this action in Gaza does not consume Israeli material and men without a cessation in rocket fire as it did in Lebanon!
1. The Lebanon War syndrome: Just as in the Second Lebanon War, Olmert, Barak and the IDF Chief of Staff Ashkenazi, are afraid that although a major ground invasion of Gaza would destroy much of the Hamas' infrastructure, it might have little or no effect on the volume of rockets being fired into Israel. Remember that one of the major aims enunciated by Olmert at the beginning of the 2006 war was to stop the rockets from Lebanon, yet despite all the efforts of the IDF, Hizbullah managed to continue firing rockets at Haifa and northern Israel until the end of the war. Now the IDF, despite its reorganization and retraining, cannot afford to let this happen again. It has lost a lot of its deterrent power, and this would make it much worse.
2. Loss of Israeli lives or captured soldiers. The Govt. fears that going into Gaza would be like a trap, walking into a better trained Hamas army waiting to kill IDF soldiers and capture some to be held hostage. The Govt. has to weight potential IDF losses against those being suffered from the rockets falling in Sderot and now in Ashkelon.
3. Hizbollah retaliation. If the IDF invades Gaza there is a high likelihood that Hizbollah, just as they did in 2006, will initiate military actions against Israel on the northern border in coordination with Hamas in the south. The IDF can certainly fight on both fronts, but doing so is obviously worse than on one front. Israel does not want to give Hizbollah an excuse for reinitiating a war on the Lebanese front.
4. Humanitarian disaster. The world is breathing down Olmert's neck whispering "no humanitarian disaster". Olmert has responded with an assurance that he will not allow that to happen in Gaza. But, as soon as an IDF offensive gets underway the degree of "collateral damage" and the cries of "humanitarian disaster" will ring out in the world's media and halls of diplomacy, whatever the actual situation.
5. Peace negotiations. As a result of increased IDF action in Gaza in response to rocket attacks, the peace negotiations with PA Pres Abbas under the Annapolis agreement are likely to be postponed or halted. In fact, it has been suggested that any Israeli action in Gaza helps Hamas vis-a-vis Fatah because Hamas appears as the Palestinina fighting force while Fatah is passive. However, losses sustained by Hamas are also positive as far as Israel and Fatah are concerened, although Fatah would never admit it.
Notwithstanding all these considerations, the Olmert Govt. has decided to take action. Doing nothing is currently untenable, and continuing the policy of selective targeted attacks is clearly not working in reducing the severity of the rocket attacks from Gaza. Therefore, logically the only remaining alternative, that any self-respecting country or Govt. could adopt, must be to counter-attack. This is what Olmert approved and active fighting is now going on in Gaza. So far 61 Palestinians have been killed (est.) and two IDF soldiers (who were already buried this morning). Given the sophistication and multiplicity of Israeli capabilities this should be a one-sided contest. But, ultimately the only way to stop the rockets is to take and occupy the ground from which they are being fired. Let's hope that this action in Gaza does not consume Israeli material and men without a cessation in rocket fire as it did in Lebanon!
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:57 PM
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