Israel at the crossroads
I watched a webcast from Jerusalem entitled "Israel at the crossroads" on the Likud website (www.thelikud.org) featuring two excellent speakers, Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, former Head of the IDF's National Defense College and Dan Diker, Head of the Inst. for Contemorary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Both made excellent points that we are usually not aware of.
Major Gen. Amidror pointed out that there are really only three military options in relation to Gaza, either do nothing, which is what the present Olmert Govt. is doing, or take military action now to stop the rockets and deal a severe blow to the Hamas military infrastructure or wait for some time and then attack Gaza. The first option is a tacit agreement between the Israeli Govt. and Hamas, that contrary to Olmert's assertions is in effect, by which Hamas gets to lob only 1-10 rockets a day at Israel while Israel excercises restraint against Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. This is so that the negotiations with Abbas and Fatah of the West Bank can go forward, since Abbas has stated that if Israel attacks Gaza he will stop all negotiations. This would cause great embarrassment to Pres. Bush who has insisted that an agreement can be reached in 2008, so Olmert has chosen to do nothing. Of course, after doing nothing he could then decide to attack later, but the longer he or his successor waits, the worse the fighting will be and the more costly to Israel.
According to Diker, the build up of Hamas forces in Gaza is part of the overall Iranian strategy of striving for regional supremacy. This includes of course its satellite Hizbollah in Lebanon and Syria. He pointed out that Israel has moved from a negotiating position based on "secure borders" to one that involves "concession diplomacy." In other words in order to arrive at an agreement, Israel must make concessions in crucial areas that will then bring the PA to the table. But, Abbas has already made it clear that he is unwilling to compromise on all points, including refugees, settlements and Jerusalem. So in order to obtain an agreement Israel must make all the concessions, in other words in effect accept the Palestinian position. That is what has happened!
Today Defense Minster Barak gave a 35 page booklet to Secty. of State Rice detailing the concessions that Israel is making, from taking away checkpoints (that catch terrorists) to stopping settlement activity. In return there is no such book from the PA. Reports, that have not been confirmed, are that Olmert has agreed that Israel will accept 100,000 Palestinian refugees, while Abbas wants 250,000 from Lebanon alone. Meanwhile in all his talks to Arab audiences, as he did at the Arab League meeting in Damascus yesterday, Abbas asked for all Arab countries to come to the Palestinian's aid against Israel (are these the words of a peacemaker). In effect he is talking about a "one-State solution" in Arabic. Ultimately, security for Israel is in defensible borders, not diplomacy.
Diker sees Israel being reduced from a local superpower, as it will have to be if it has to confront Iran, to a local minor satrapy of the US, doing its bidding in making concessions to the PA. In this respect, Condoleeza Rice is representing the State Dept., that is pushing the Saudi peace plan, more than she represents Pres. Bush.
Talk of a peace agreement of the Olmert Govt. with Syria comes at the worst possible time, when neither the US nor the "moderate" Arabs are interested in helping Syria. That's why ten of the Arab League member countries did not send their top level diplomats to Damascus for the Arab League meeting, and why Lebanon did not send any representative. In relation to the other Arab countries Syria is on the defensive and is isolated. Any potential agreement with Syria will only aid its stand against the other Arab countries and might end up with Iranian forces stationed on the Golan Heights!
In pushing its plan for regional Middle East supremacy, Iran has three specific aims: 1. Destroy Israel as the regional representative of the US; 2. Establish Iranian leadership of the Arab world; 3. Export its radical Islamist revolution around the world. This was the original formulation of Ayatollah Khomeini that has been resurrected by Pres. Ahmedinejad and his extremist supporters. Focussing on details of the West Bank takes attention away from the real threat to Israel's existence.
Major Gen. Amidror pointed out that there are really only three military options in relation to Gaza, either do nothing, which is what the present Olmert Govt. is doing, or take military action now to stop the rockets and deal a severe blow to the Hamas military infrastructure or wait for some time and then attack Gaza. The first option is a tacit agreement between the Israeli Govt. and Hamas, that contrary to Olmert's assertions is in effect, by which Hamas gets to lob only 1-10 rockets a day at Israel while Israel excercises restraint against Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. This is so that the negotiations with Abbas and Fatah of the West Bank can go forward, since Abbas has stated that if Israel attacks Gaza he will stop all negotiations. This would cause great embarrassment to Pres. Bush who has insisted that an agreement can be reached in 2008, so Olmert has chosen to do nothing. Of course, after doing nothing he could then decide to attack later, but the longer he or his successor waits, the worse the fighting will be and the more costly to Israel.
According to Diker, the build up of Hamas forces in Gaza is part of the overall Iranian strategy of striving for regional supremacy. This includes of course its satellite Hizbollah in Lebanon and Syria. He pointed out that Israel has moved from a negotiating position based on "secure borders" to one that involves "concession diplomacy." In other words in order to arrive at an agreement, Israel must make concessions in crucial areas that will then bring the PA to the table. But, Abbas has already made it clear that he is unwilling to compromise on all points, including refugees, settlements and Jerusalem. So in order to obtain an agreement Israel must make all the concessions, in other words in effect accept the Palestinian position. That is what has happened!
Today Defense Minster Barak gave a 35 page booklet to Secty. of State Rice detailing the concessions that Israel is making, from taking away checkpoints (that catch terrorists) to stopping settlement activity. In return there is no such book from the PA. Reports, that have not been confirmed, are that Olmert has agreed that Israel will accept 100,000 Palestinian refugees, while Abbas wants 250,000 from Lebanon alone. Meanwhile in all his talks to Arab audiences, as he did at the Arab League meeting in Damascus yesterday, Abbas asked for all Arab countries to come to the Palestinian's aid against Israel (are these the words of a peacemaker). In effect he is talking about a "one-State solution" in Arabic. Ultimately, security for Israel is in defensible borders, not diplomacy.
Diker sees Israel being reduced from a local superpower, as it will have to be if it has to confront Iran, to a local minor satrapy of the US, doing its bidding in making concessions to the PA. In this respect, Condoleeza Rice is representing the State Dept., that is pushing the Saudi peace plan, more than she represents Pres. Bush.
Talk of a peace agreement of the Olmert Govt. with Syria comes at the worst possible time, when neither the US nor the "moderate" Arabs are interested in helping Syria. That's why ten of the Arab League member countries did not send their top level diplomats to Damascus for the Arab League meeting, and why Lebanon did not send any representative. In relation to the other Arab countries Syria is on the defensive and is isolated. Any potential agreement with Syria will only aid its stand against the other Arab countries and might end up with Iranian forces stationed on the Golan Heights!
In pushing its plan for regional Middle East supremacy, Iran has three specific aims: 1. Destroy Israel as the regional representative of the US; 2. Establish Iranian leadership of the Arab world; 3. Export its radical Islamist revolution around the world. This was the original formulation of Ayatollah Khomeini that has been resurrected by Pres. Ahmedinejad and his extremist supporters. Focussing on details of the West Bank takes attention away from the real threat to Israel's existence.
posted by Jack Cohen at 11:21 AM
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